Is the rule of thumb that spod concentrate delivered to a converter will take approximately 3 months to process?
If so, then the last BMX auction will be shipped this month, which means the converter is expecting to fetch the current high prices in 3 months time ie Jan/Feb.
Likewise, this months BMX auction (hopefully there is one) will show sentiment for prices expected in Mar/April next year. I think this is the core indication of demand and those most likely to know future prices. I would follow what a chinese converter says about future prices rather than some corporate finance vulture hoping to manipulate the market.
If the above is correct, then this months BMX would theoretically indicate what prices are expected to be nearly halfway through next year. Which doesnt provide a lot of time for prices to decline as predicted by said vultures.
Everyone might already know this, but I've only just started to focus on the lead times from the BMX auction, rather than the immediate sale price.
Good News & Bad News, page-16743
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