Indices 10/10, page-273

SP500

What an interesting couple of days, this is the kind of stuff that makes it worth it.

The lowest 4 closes of the year have happened in the last 9 days:

3577, 3583, 3585, 3588

All -25% from peak.

Consider that -30% has only happened once when not in recession in 1987.

So when we reached -27% on the intraday there was very little downside to be gained which led to an inflection point and a +4% intraday spike with a settling down the next day to take us back to the -25% close level for the 4th time.

I've been playing out this thesis in October that we have had a hard floor at this drawdown level at 3550 so while there's been volitility the closing low has held above this and if record core CPI can't break it it looks a very strong.

There is no data points I'm keen on until another 2 weeks so see clear air for the markets from here.

I've been using a +10% gain (using intraday figures) as my estimate for the rest of the year so based on 3491, +10% through the rest of year gets us to 3850.

Most of the excitement is probably done for the year in my view.