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Ann: Trading Update, page-9

  1. 5,395 Posts.
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    Yes I agree about growth. Here are some more figures to consider.

    TYR has not made a profit in last 6 years (I could only find figures back to 2017) it’s lowest loss was in 2021 for (9.8m) and worst was in 2020 for $25.9).

    It’s EBITDA margin was negative in 2017 and 2018, -4.5% in 2019, -2.07% in 2020, +5.94% in 2021 and +3.3% in 2022.

    It’s revenue growth in 2020 was 11%, in 21 it was 13.2% and 36.7% in 2022. Not that great except for 2022.

    SMP looks much more impressive as follows.

    EBITDA margins:

    2015 - 41.4%
    2016 - 40%
    2017 - 46.1%
    2018 - 48%
    2019 - 30%
    2020 - 26.1%
    2021 - 22.5%
    2022 - 23.1%

    I am expecting a significant improvement in the SMP EBITDA margin based on earlier analysis for the FH of FY23 results noting there was a significantly better margin the the SH if FY 22. SMP really started to invest in its Australia business in 2019 as the above figures demonstrate.

    It has always been profitable. I believe they can reach a 50% margin for EBITDA as a % of revenue by 2025 FY maybe even close in second half of FY 2024.

    Revenue growth has been

    2020- 34.8%
    2021 - 19.4%
    2022 - 44.4%

    Revenue growth before 2019 was small as they had little Australian business and a mature NZ business.

    SMP has more impressive growth than TYR (SMPs NZ business has been included which reduces the growth rate).

    Its all very well to be a much bigger company in TYR than SMP but at the end it’s profit that counts and so far SMP wins. SMP is more more profitable company than TYR - just look at the EBITDA margins, they are chalk and cheese.

    SMP’s execution to date has also been much better than TYR.

    SMP is being overlooked by investors. If my figures are reasonable for the half year and the full FY 23 results then SMP SP will undergo a major re-rating - when that will occur and how much higher they will go I have no idea. Maybe we will find out later this year.

    However, I may be wrong about SMPs improved profitability so you should do your own research and not just rely on my analysis.

 
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