Russia Ukraine war, page-69518

A comprehensive rebuttal of Mearsheimer's arguments, from Prof Alexander Stubb ex Finland PM.

Specifically disagrees with Mearcsheimer's thesis that:

1. Russia was unable to help itself
2. Putin was making a rational choice
3. Ukraine is to be subdued
4. This is about NATO enlargement
5. US and EU didn't accommodate Russia enough
therefore the conflict was inevitable and not Russia's fault.

Essentially Stubb argues:
Putin made a choice and was able to help himself.
Putin hates the West and believes he can save the West from itself.
NATO is a spurious excuse. He saw Ukraine moving in the direction of the West.
He is emulating Peter and Catherine the Great and Stalin, he wants one religion one language and to 'Make Russia Great Again'.
So it's a kind of crusade.
In reality the war is all about international law and individual sovereignty.
It's about having rules which counter the tendency of the larger nations to bully the weaker.

Ukraine declared what it wanted by the Orange Revolution 2003-4, with the Maidan demonstrations, with the dignity demonstrations.
So the last thing that Ukraine should have done is to give up.
The only thing Russia and Putin understands is brute force.
The only thing to blame is Putin and Russia.

The NATO expansion. NATO was defensive against the USSR, then it took on a peacekeeping role. A partnership.
Enlargement came from ex USSR nations to defend themselves. NATO has never attacked another country.
Putin attacked Georgia only a few months after negotiated peace.
The attacks had nothing to do with NATO, it was all about Putin wanting to create weakness in the neighbourhood.
American projection of power or European projection.
Works on premises, EU idealism working with partnership on Russia.
Ways to partner with Russia have been varied.
The realism part of NATO is if there is a rainy day, security will come into play.

On the US side, Mearsheimer's thesis breaks down also.
2008 US position to back up Georgia, got a ceasefire within 5 days.
Obama equivocated on Crimea, so it gave Putin an impression the reaction would be the same.
There was an attempt to accomodate Russia into the WTO and G8, but it failed because of the revisionist, imperialist and expansionist nature of Russia under Putin.
The war is not fault of US, the West, EU and not Ukraine.
Its only Russia and Putin that's at fault.

Conclusion: Stubbs believes in academic freedom and open debate, but sometimes worries (being next to Russia and having survived WW2, as Soviet neighbour to Finland and losing territory to Russia,) when academics make incorrect claims and misuse data and information.

More important than theory, is what is happening on the ground.

Theory can be misleading and oversimplifying. Mearsheimer's theory is about a reality that simply does not exist.

Real reasons for Putin's invasion:
1. superpower nostalgia status, Russia is in decline
2. aversion to liberal democracy
3. domestic affairs, about the future of Russia

Claims can lead to false assumptions, conclusions and the loss of life.

Recommends reading a piece from Veronica Angel and Dietland Stolle, also read Eric Jones,
and watch Mearsheimer's argument BUT ALSO the discussion that took place after that.

Russia was indeed able to help itself.