G'day Dr Drill69, not looking for fans I assure you, but thank you for the comments. I take them in return for efforts in here for all readers, and the company, and me too of course. My report is already out of date, and have not needed to promote since 2014. That is why I stopped writing on all the prominent gold web sites. I had technical reasons at the time and my little boutique site is ticking along OK. My main interest is fulfilling that obligation but making money by investing. And I love researching and writing too.
And I appreciate your tone and message to push me as I love a challenge too. Your point is valid. I am initially a little disappointed like you; and put up the sad face. Manna is early stage and we got a good price - for this stage of the project that has a lot of upside. Win win? OK you motivated the analyst in me here so well done. Here are my thoughts tonight.
First I factor market reality. Have to. What if GL1 just moved to a hostile T/O to get the project? They could have paid a hefty premium and gotten it all and $20M and a super cheap gold project. If we played too hard it could have turned out that way.
Our market cap only $75M at present; so another view is to factor that into this mix. Gold sector horrible at present too. So maybe $110M would have done the trick. Manna + payments = $60M so they could have sold off Bombora for maybe $100M and walked away very happy. Maybe only $70M for Bombora as a sale price after the T/O; and still way in front. Maybe paid $130M and we got stuff all and they got everything they wanted and their money back. Maybe they could have sat on Bombora and played the game you / we / I wanted BRB to play with Li, only with gold. Wait for gold to turn (very well researched on this) and sell it off down the road for $200M or float it off for their shareholders. This is no game.
Another factor is the current state of credit markets and inflation and staff issues and supply chain issues. Bonds are blowing up with the GILTS in the lead and the Fed frantically bluffing. China and Europe stuffed and the US in turmoil about to get much worse. The local staff issues may subside a little here and inflation will slow but the CB's are content to inflict pain (raising rates more) as seen by their actions. Capital is getting more expensive and economies are in trouble while in a massive debt bubble. Banks are a serious risk.
Li could have a competitor at any time as I keep a bit of an ear on this. Yet the factories are geared for Li so it is not going away; not medium term. I researched all this further today with a couple of savvy people and long conversations. Insiders in the Li space see a race to get there in the next 4 - 5 years or miss out. Currently Li is hot and very valuable and maybe the stocks will be overdone in the coming time period (not sufficiently savvy on this to estimate when - but it will come like all cycles). Manna is early stage but the investment needed to chase that prize needs to be unencumbered too. So the Board of BRB took the win now, and got both the progress payments locked in. Only one was considered in the bag at present.
Our current position: The market that is not hot is gold. A company with a market cap of only $75M and cash of circa $22M (EV only 53M) just did a deal worth $60M. Think about it that way if you will. Market reality. We now have circa $82M in cash and a war chest with a deal maker in the chair as Chair. Thank you Peter and the Board for that. GL1 have the space they need and we got a lot of capital out of that asset that is not our core. Tom had told us Manna was worth more than our market cap on its own and he was right. Peter bought that home. Excellent. We are possibly the most cashed up smaller explorer moving into development on the ASX. We have the cash to satisfy the equity portion of a bank funding deal to move to production now. Not ready yet but some of the project is ready to go any time as it is de-risked substantially. Toll treat down 100M and bank $100M any time only with gold rising soon that will only improve. And we have Ularring ready to drill now and a deal maker in the chair You get my point.
So in this difficult environment; we got no dilution and we have options and loads of cash and a re-rate on the cards now. I did not say too much today as I was still letting the news settle on me and have time to think. I wanted the gold and I did not want dilution. Now the gold will be valued more realistically in this market environment at perhaps $60M and drive this to $140M M/Cap (including the cash?); especially if we get hits at Ularring. They are confident of that. This is truly a safe position to be in during this currently crappy market, a mine field. The Board has protected our interests and got that second payment up front and secured the first $10M and another $40 on top of the $24.5M they got in the deal as cash and shares. Some $1.6M invested turned into $84.5M from Manna from heaven. Brilliant strategy if you think about it.
I believe the geological team will look at the whole project and Peter will add a great deal too. The Keith Kilkenny shear is a cracker. Bombora may not even be the best of it. We have a starter pit that could be mined and we have so much upside UG and in gold rising. Watch gold and Li over the coming few years and keep an open mind at present or sell if that is how you feel after taking all factors into consideration absent emotion. That suggestion is for all investors and not advice - just an approach that makes sense.
I enjoy all the posts in here so thanks to you Dr. Drill and the rest of you. Some are enlightening at times and a lot of common sense too. I am an investor in this space and like it that way.
Cheers CW PS I hope BRB sails through 30c in the near term and upwards to retest that 44c level but in this market, your guess is as good as mine.
BRB Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held