"Retired, plug that into your spread sheet and see what you think somebody could afford to pay and still get a reasonable rate of return."
Haven't looked at the spreadsheet for a while and trying to update variables that are pretty rubbery. Have increased CAPEX from STO estimate of US$1.715bn to US$2.0bn. Not sure this is enough as it only represents a 10% increase and high CAPEX was the FID issue. Using US$60 pb revenue and 50% PRRT and royalty however I admit I know little about this but believe 50% is conservative. Using 0.7000 FX conversion.
Based on these variable net cash flow to CVN just for Dorado oil is around US$0.30c per share or AU$0.41. No income tax or NPV calculations done.
Again I believe the variables used (POO, PRRT and royalty) are conservative so there is likely some upside. Also number of shares has increased from 1.5bn to 1.8b and AU$100m cash ignored (say 5c per share). Can update for different variables but CAPEX is the wildcard. I can now understand CAPEX has affected FID as I recall my last calculation had net cash flow of around AU$0.60 but other variables also used.
Of course this excludes Pavo, gas and blue sky exploration values. Value of gas is now more relevant and Dorado, Roc and PS have a lot. Blue sky potential is enormous now that strike rates are good. Bedout could be a real gold mine but buckets of cash required to unlock any value. Hope this helps. Not sure offer of $1.00 per share is reasonable given the current uncertainty. As a SH I would not be interested in selling much below 50c. And a low FX rate may encourage USD company to look more closely.
Spreadsheet is a real back of the envelope analysis but I've tried to be conservative.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- CVN
- How has CVN avoided being a takeover target?
How has CVN avoided being a takeover target?, page-21
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 22 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add CVN (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
16.0¢ |
Change
0.005(3.23%) |
Mkt cap ! $286.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
16.0¢ | 16.0¢ | 15.8¢ | $136.6K | 855.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 166365 | 15.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
16.0¢ | 184462 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 106688 | 0.155 |
11 | 1673891 | 0.150 |
20 | 477375 | 0.145 |
14 | 571795 | 0.140 |
3 | 487000 | 0.135 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.160 | 159462 | 3 |
0.165 | 335710 | 6 |
0.170 | 534952 | 11 |
0.175 | 569536 | 8 |
0.180 | 602975 | 9 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 27/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
CVN (ASX) Chart |