The other compelling thesis I've seen is that the primary goal of locking down is to pressure Xi's rivals in the form of the more business/enterprise-heavy Shanghai Gang. That thesis would probably predict a gradual opening up of the country now that the Congress is complete, which is a nice falsifiable prediction on a probably 3-6 month timescale. Of course, this is not incompatible with the "it's to starve the west's economy" thesis or the simple face-value "Chinese society's view on the benefits of Covid-zero vs opening up, & capacity of Chinese healthcare system relative to its population, are different from that of the west" thesis.
With that said, I'm not anything remotely close to either a China expert or a geopolitics expert, so I don't generally want predictions like this having more than a small informative/qualitative effect on my investing decisions... But it's a narrative I'm keeping half an eye on to see how it plays out. Maybe @didicoco would have a more informed opinion on the topic.
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