Some great posts/thoughts above, thanks all. Wish I could be as insightful
In the end, my "thesis" at buy time was "negative oil prices can't be a thing forever" lol
If (big if) a $3 AUD dividend rate per year is sustainable, at current price, the div yield is around 8%. Looking over the last 10y in TIKR, the fwd div yield of WDS has hovered between 4-7%. Unless you think that oil/gas are gonna be significantly re-rated upward valuation wise (which I don't), or that the earnings/FCF of WDS is going to grow dramatically, I think that a reasonable price based on div yield is maybe 6%, which would give us a WDS price of $50 p/s. Please correct my maths if I've failed somewhere
Similar to you heatherbelle, I'm thinking about lightening up as we approach $40 and maybe bailing out completely in the low $40's. Can't go broke taking a profit right. But at the same time, with all the O&G underinvestment and "ESG" BS, I can't help but think that maybe O&G prices march upwards and WDS trades at $80 in 2025 haha
WDS too cheap?, page-752
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Last
$25.60 |
Change
0.475(1.89%) |
Mkt cap ! $48.30B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $25.25 | $25.66 | $25.22 | $52.46M | 2.063M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | 5575 | $25.59 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $25.60 | 17099 | 25 |
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| Last trade - 12.26pm 07/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| WDS (ASX) Chart |