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Ann: Sept 2022 Quarterly Activities and Cash Flow, page-28

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steeletheone

556 Posts.

75

02/11/22

14:26

Post #: 64546779
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Originally posted by BerserkWarrior: ↑

monark.....my expectations..... for starters maybe some honesty rather than the spin management put on here. Quoting future production of 50,000bopd...why not 500,000bopd?...they have equal likelihood of achieving both- zero chance. If that were the case why is this even trading? It would have been taken out. Flying under the radar?.....I don't think so. It strikes me why a major or even a small to mid sized oiler wouldn't be throwing themselves at a JV if that was a plausible target? Come to think of it, nobody would want to JV it, they'd want it lock, stock & barrel.

On hedges...they're a valid expense at a particular point in time & it's why they're there. Sure, free cash gen looks very healthy when you omit them & add back....but you can't (that's a smokescreen) & to then extrapolate that free cash gen going forward sans hedges is fraught.....I don't know what WTI will average over 2023. I'm hoping for US$105....it might be $120.....then again it might be $70.....take off the Canadian discount & look at what their free cash gen is under those circumstances (they stuffed). It's all hyperbole.....nobody knows & if they claim they do then they wouldn't be posting on HC. Growth capex is arbitrary....they can choose to spend what they want & it's managements call to do so at a level that generates adequate returns on the capital expended. It's their maintenance capex sucking the numbers dry. That's problematic & potentially embedded.

Montney....the story & timelines keeps changing....why? Ok, the obvious is they can't bag a JV partner. Again...why? It's proven acreage, has a modicum of infrastructure yet nobody seemingly is up for a sizeable cut for managements claim of 50,000bodp in a few years after a relatively modest capital spend for those production numbers. There's a disconnect between what they're saying & the truth & that's now reflected in the market derating that's taken place. There aren't too many Canadian oilers trading at where they were or less than where they were 12 months ago for obvious reasons. Their oil index is up 38% over the last 12 months. That's not an unreasonable starting place for industry comparisons. BTW Glenn had Montney monitized as a 'sure thing' as you say more than 6 months ago. Now they're taking of 'possibly 2025'....even the upcoming program for Montney isn't committed to. look at the language in the quarterly, it's purposely evasive where they're 'evaluating a winter program' & 'considering a commitment'. There is nothing that binds them to doing anything with Montney for the foreseeable future. Again a smokescreen. There's a reason CE1 is trading where it is.

I've said it before, my basis for investing here was predicated on free cash generation & a monetizing event for Montney has changed since I invested. I'd be out tomorrow but the size of my family's collected ownership precludes divestment due to available liquidity.

I'd like to see this come good for obvious reasons. I don't have your conviction for the reasons above. I now have no conviction in management to deliver what they say.....they haven't yet & I base the future on what they've done to date, not on what they spin. That hasn't worked so far.

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jeez, don't hold back .... speak your mind!!!!!

CE1 Price at posting: 13.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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