@WESTHOT We know there’s a very high chance trofinetide will be approved, and I’m sure this realisation is something Neuren is pushing in negotiations already. I’m not sure if FDA approval will add an additional premium to current negotiations because the drug will either be approved or not approved. ROW success will to a not unsubstantial degree depend on FDA approval although not exclusively. FDA approval doesn’t guarantee approval in other jurisdictions as Jon mentioned, but trofinetide definitely wont have an easier time getting approval elsewhere if it falls short at the FDA. That detail is worth something and I figure it sits somewhere in the rationale for pushing for optimal terms pre-approval.
I would prefer a larger upfront payment from the ROW deal to fund NNZ-2591, there’s the opportunity cost of time to market and subsequent commercialisation in other jurisdictions ex-North America which are not as commercially vibrant as the US. It will take time for reimbursement issues to be sorted and market penetration to spool up. The Americans just seem to do commercialisation better and it’s easier to get insurers onboard.
Someone recently put forward a good argument for higher percentage royalties, and before today I would agree with that position. But the calculus has changed hence the larger upfront payment preference.
NEU Price at posting:
$7.52 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)