The Hannam & Partners guy knows his stuff no doubt. I think its the same guy who was writing up Hannam & Partners reports for HE1 in 2021 which has struggled (28p down to 5p now on the LSE) finding helium hasn't been easy for them BNL is much more advanced. Consultants if paid to write up on a company I take with a grain of salt. It's the company at the end of the day that needs to deliver proving up reserves.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nasdaq.com/articles/shortage-in-helium-could-send-these-2-gas-stocks-higher%3fampThis Nasdaq article highlights a couple of massive multi billion companies like Linde and Air Products could benefit from the helium shortage.These massive companies at a guess would be happy to buy gaseous helium off BNL at super low prices then process it themselves into liquid helium to get the super high spot prices.
If BNL wants to be a disruptor they need to bypass middlemen and go direct to customers if they can. Then also can BNL get its own liquifier for liquid helium? The current plan is for modules that can do gaseous helium only. Two modules as planned currently would cost about AUD$50m by the look of it with the wells. So funds will be needed (debt funding needs reserves) unless a module can be leased. A liquifier would be quite costly and need the scale to justify it.
The US has absolutely dominated global helium production with maybe over 80% of global production until the BLM started to diminish its supplies and other key producers entered the market like Qatar, Algeria and Russia etc.. The below 2020 report shows the US consumed about 24% of global demand but maybe that's increasing given huge investments into semiconductor manufacturing in the US.
Anyway I'm interested in seeing the Sproule report on Galactica/Pegasus to see where BNL is at in terms of reserves/resources.
PS 50c a share for BNL would be maybe an 800m marketcap I don't know the future who knows but in my opinion that would need several bcf of proven helium reserves at least and a strategy to sell liquid helium to capture those high spot prices
(20min delay)