REA - A Straw Hats Buy, page-11

The decline in listings is playing out as expected (REA was unsuprisingly more sanguine at FY22 results and still is) and the RBA is not done hiking. Mortgage rates are on the way to tripling to ~6%+ and this will have existing owners staying put who are on fixed rates, and will put a lot of individual prop investors on the sidelines.

It probably won't be as bad as the drop off in activity coming for the USA, most existing owners there are on long dated fixed rates near 2% and would be mad to move house and accept what looks like gping to 8% fixed rates. At least in Australia by thr end of next year everyone will be on currents rates so there won't be that dynamic in Aus for much longer.

Rates in Aus are going to a place that if left there for a l9ng time will cause 30% declines in housing. That is very seripus for financual stability and would almosr certainly result in a bad recession. I am convinced the RBA will blink in a few months and begin cutting again second haly 2023 to put a floor under the market.