CONSUMPTION of gas is expected to soar in the next two decades as major new projects, such as those in Queensland's coal-seam gas frontier, come on stream and the nation slowly shifts away from the use of coal. ABARE, the nation's peak commodities forecaster, said yesterday it expected total energy consumption in Australia to rise 35 per cent between 2007-08 and 2029-30, or 1.4 per cent a year.
Although the nation will remain dependent on coal and oil for its energy supplies, the use of gas is projected to rise 50 per cent, or 3.4 per cent a year.
By 2029-30, gas is expected to make up 33 per cent of energy consumption, compared with 22 per cent now. Energy from renewable sources, such as the wind, sun and hot rocks buried deep underground, is expected to make up 8 per cent of energy consumption, up from 5 per cent today.
ABARE's projections reflect the impact of the federal government's renewable energy target and a 5 per cent carbon emissions reduction below 2000 levels by 2020.
Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar. Related CoverageRecord ore exports Perth Now, 6 days ago ETS to send gas use soaring The Australian, 16 Dec 2009 Resources earnings dip on dollar The Australian, 10 Dec 2009 China demand boosts mineral export outlook The Australian, 22 Sep 2009 Commodity export earnings to decline The Australian, 22 Sep 2009 .End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar. It believes that, by 2029-30, gas-fired power stations will generate 37 per cent of the nation's electricity, compared to just 19 per cent today. By comparison, coal's share of the power industry will crash from 72 per cent to 43 per cent, with renewables, mainly wind, lifting their share from 7 per cent to 19 per cent.
Total Australian production of energy, excluding uranium, is projected to grow 87 per cent in the next 20 years -- or 2.9 per cent a year. Again, the fastest growth will occur in the gas sector, although production of coal will continue to expand at 1.8 per cent a year despite its shrinking market share.
ABARE believes production of coal-seam gas in Queensland and NSW will increase almost 20-fold by 2029-30. "It is expected that a significant proportion of this CSG will be consumed domestically, supporting the projected growth in gas-fired electricity generation," the body says in its latest energy projections report.
Apart from the development of the CSG industry, which is expected to start exporting liquefied natural gas from 2015, massive projects in Western Australia will ensure energy exports continue to soar in the next 20 years.
Gas is expected to represent 36 per cent of total energy production by 2029-30, up from just 16 per cent today. Western Australia will still account for almost 60 per cent of national gas production in 2029-30.
ABARE believes energy consumption growth will be strongest in the resource-rich states of Western Australia and Queensland. It says the mining industry is expected to use 13 per cent of the nation's energy by 2029-30, up from just 5 per cent today.
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