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Sick of the threads whinging about delayed open. What will be will be.

I am interested in where the sp might end up on the open. Given that the compnay has had plenty of delays, including this suspension, I am not sure we can reasonably expect that the timelines promised will be kept. Hoever, we can only work assumptions on what is known.

What is known:

1. Contractor on site perparing for first mine production some tie in the next quarter. (One would assume this deadline MIGHT be met, given the mine is amenable to open pit mining.)

2. Company has openly stated target of 1m tonnes of coal production per annum in the first year, ramping up to 4.5m tonnes per annum by 2013. (I confirmed this with a Director in a call made last week).

3. Three to four mines operating by early 2013. (Who knows, but that is what we have been told to expect as investors. Again, confirmed with a Director in same conversation)

4. Company expecting that more than 60% of the 4.5m tonnes per annum of 2013 production will be exported coal. Profit margin of between 30% to 50% on a coal price of 95USD. (Ditto, re Director conversation)

5. Current suspension is related to off take agreements with major energy players. So, it seems CCC will have a ready market for their production. No nmaes no packdrills offered in conversation.

6. Part of the announcment and agreements to be signed were rail and port agrements for CCC.

7. it is expected that this announcmeent may also have a coal debt arrangement for up to $30m, which will alleviate the need for CCC to borrow money, or Cap raise in the very near future. That's a good thing, as we already have more than a billion shares out there, plus oppies with a strike of 5 cents in 2013, (Assuming lots of people have not exercised)

Given those facts everyone is expecting a major re rating.

Re rating will occur if this announcement is with a major player. Initial flurry of activity and hype could see this thing go past 10 cents and possibly further, depending on the quality of the announcement.

On a slightly longer term ( maybe three months) if the market can be assured of 1m tonnes per annum at 45USD profit, with new mines coming on stream the annual profit at let's say $45m for one mine we might reasonably expect a eps of around .3 cents, on a pe of, say 10, gives a base of around 3 cents per share

If they can get the first mine operating and generating decent cashflow, the we might also expect the market to re rate on a confidence level. I would be the first to admit scepticism about the management's ability, until the Riversdale guys got on board.

If they can generate the cashflow, profits and confidence, then we could extrapolate the profitability of three mines and that should assure a longer term price above ten cents.

That's not assuming that the coal price is not going to improve significantly, which we all think it will over the next year or two.

So, with that in mind, I am thinking the long term target for CCC can't be more than about 20 cents.

I have not included the Vanmag sale in calculations and I have to admit that I am unsure if CCC have more potential than 3 to 4 mines.

I welcome comment and other poster forecasts. I am sure there are a lot of people out there who think its going higher.