Weekly Review U Stocks - 11th Nov 2022
Please note that this is my last post in GTR thread for current phase. Markets are not moving and we have been stalled. I write for trading purposes, and there have been none for last many weeks. Also most punters seem to have lost interest. There are couple of posters who keep this thread amused with their dribble and nonsense - many seem to enjoy - while stock is not doing much, please continue to have fun that way. I know most will not miss my posts as they are more interested in amusement. If there are any posters who are interested in how U sector is going, I will be posting in another U stock thread which I am doing for some time. When I write there that I am buying, it may signal a turn. For rest, hope you all do well, and all the best.
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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NO DIARY THIS WEEK: This week there is no diary. The U sector has stalled and only trading within a 5 to 10% swing. This is not enough for doing any trades. So I have reduced most of my trading activity on U stocks. I am waiting for a run or a volatility. I wish its a run rather than a volatility on down side. I know there are lots of long term holders waiting for a good price action - lets hope that's the reason my Diary comes out.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 25 stocks.
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Overall for this week - For over couple of months I have been calling that we need to be above 3900 on SP 500. Also, a big likelyhood that we may test 4100/4150. After much ups and downs, we closed at 3992 on Friday. The odds of testing the level I have been talking for some time has never been better. Although indices gained on Thursday, ASX punters were still scared it might e another bear rally and stocks did not rise much on Friday. On Friday, US indices gained again. I feel we will now see ASX punters stepping up. This may be a defining week for a number of reasons.
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Risk-Reward from here ( this is still relevant even after two weeks and hence copied from my 3 week back weekly report. Its still relevant and is partially paying off. We have not yet got full gains, we may be at starting point, and upside could be still huge - hence its relevant):
- I have been following the price action very closely, in my figures, rise from June bottom etc.
- There is a chance we can have another sell down next week on indices - we could reach lower low (below 3491 on SP 500) or higher low.
- At this stage, punters, markets have factored in all bad news, most feel we are near bottom, if not we have seen bottom.
- If indices were fall, even big, stocks that I follow would drop another 10 to 20% - most likely another 10%.
- But if what I am reading and seeing in price action is that we are near bottom or seen bottom, and its time to rally, we are looking at gains between 40% to 100% in next few months - individual stocks will carve their own path though where they fall
- So at this stage of market - Risk-Reward is very good, one of the best I can think for a while
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Next week SP 500 and other indicators path:
- A big week coming up. I have been calling for a big fight at 4100/4150 level - its on now
- Friday rise confirmed for many doubters that Thursday big rise was not a trap
- For next week - first target around 4100/4150 - to get over 200 day moving average - that will be bullish
- Next immediate level is 4200 - long term trend line sloping downwards. Overcoming this will be another bullish sign
- If we cross 4200, we don't know what will happen. Very few contemplated that we may reach here. We may have to take one step at a time and look what happens.
- For those not convinced of the rally, profit taking can happen at levels I mentioned
- Yields are decreasing, Dollar index falling, VIX falling - all positive for stocks
- No major economic drive for next few week. The PPI data and unemployment figures may provide some direction. So mostly technical indicators will drive market
- Next Friday is Options Expiry - Market Makers (those who manage Wall Street and pay out for Calls and Puts) may manipulate again. Sometimes they have to pay out 100s of billions of dollars. So they can/and do manipulate. Something to keep an eye on. Will look at Thursday what is maximum pain for Calls/Puts - market may move to that number for Friday
- My gut feel - We may see 4100/4150 very likely. Good chance for 4200. But have an open mind after that. I will not be surprised to see the rally continue, but not before we have some down days and back test of support
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Personally: I called back sometime around the risk reward and saying its very favorable to be in market rather than out. So in terms of my portfolio, I am mostly in. Most of my current trades are taking profits as they are reaching targets or switching from one stocks to another - moving from those not performing great to others. All details in my diary. At this stage for U stocks I am still waiting to get confirmation and hence mostly trading Li stocks.
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.What are analysts saying - I had never seen so many bearish analysts on Wednesday. Majority of them were bearish, and many believed we may have a big crash like 2008 after getting bad CPI data. Just shows its not easy out there, us amateurs and so called great analysts. Of course CPI was a binary event as I said, but still tone was very pessimistic. Thankfully its changed after that event. Many feel that we will go higher in short term
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Stock specific Info:
- With new change in markets this week, GTR can make a move though it has been very weak
- First thing is to get above 1.8 and close above that.
- Next cross 2.2 - this is my next number
- Last few weeks U sector has not done well. Last 6 weeks: 0, -4, +1, 0, -1, +1 - so not very good last 6 weeks - overall -3 in 6 weeks - one of the reasons I am not holding trading stocks
- This is the best time to make a move. I don't hold U trading stocks as I mentioned in other weeks, lets see if it has got legs to make the move
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Rise from June Bottom:
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(20min delay)