Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-57

I agree with some of this, but a lot is just plainly, objectively incorrect.

Obviously if the price is consistently declining for two years, there are more sellers than buyers. I don't really think the existence of this needs to be discussed in any detail, but the relevant question is 'Why?'.

Yes, sure, dilution is a factor. There has been no shortage of ongoing discussion of this over the last 2.5 years or so, since the roll up strategy kicked off. But, it's clearly not the only issue, and you seem to be implying it is. This is quite clearly incorrect; the price was going up for some time after the dilution started, because the picture looked good. The price didn't start going down until the figures started to look disappointing, and dilution doesn't at all explain the ongoing decline in price over the last 6-12 months, and it shouldn't take a brilliant analyst to see that the declines have generally come shortly after the release of bad figures. Dbd saw this coming a little before I did, and I started expressing my concerns about the figures the best part of two years ago now. If the fundamental value actually was demonstrably there, we wouldn't have seen the price collapse by about 75% over the last two years or so! Sure, dilution and short-sighted profit takers can drop the price by a small amount in a small time frame, but to slash literally most of the value in a continuous decline for two years? Obviously there is something substantial going on.

If you are satisfied with the figures that's fine, but obviously the market is not. Two years ago everyone was expecting that by now TNT would be generating significant cash flow. Back then we were excitedly expecting all these synergies to quickly become apparent, and that just hasn't met expectations. More significantly, the expenses were supposed to be streamlined in the amalgamated company, and this has been dramatically disappointing. The bottom line is that we absolutely positively have not seen the cash flow everyone was expecting back then. Go back and ready expectations 6, 12, 24 months ago in the TNT discussions here and you'll see that the predictions and hopes just haven't turned into reality. That's why there has been a consistent price decline for two years, at least, that's the lion's share of why. Obfuscating the situation by putting all the blame on something other than the main cause just isn't helping anyone.

TNT has promised that it was wanting to expand further. We were continually being promised aquisitions in five eyes nations (some time ago now, I was a holder eagerly awaiting announcements of five eyes nation acquisitions, which never came). If things did improve and the share price recovered, according to what you're saying (which I disagree with, I'm just highlighting that it doesn't really make sense), they would resume their acquisitional strategy because the share price would allow it, but that by your reasoning would once again depress the share price for another few years, because it would definitely involve a lot of dilution.

Let's face it, anyone dumping their shares over the last couple of years knew what they were doing. Even if you were correct and it was just because of the sale of newly-issued (or shares which were 'gifted for nothing' as you put it... I won't even bother dissecting that one), we all knew about the issuing of those shares, so we should have known to sell. But no one is doing themselves any favours by making false excuses and believing them, I think by now that should be abundantly clear. Even if you hate what I've been saying, after the best part of two years, surely the bulls continuously saying it was a great time to buy, the price was going to go up, etc etc, and that Sdaji was completely wrong for taking his profit and staying out... surely by now it's clear that I wasn't wrong, and the people so sure it was worth holding did make a mistake somewhere. We haven't just seen a 20% drop over a month or two and then a recovery.

You say macro factors will be favourable down the track... that's optimistic, there's certainly no consensus on that, but I hope you're right, and you might be. But regardless of the macros, TNT needs company-specific improvements to bring the share price up. I do hope TNT can pull that off, and they might, but we need to see evidence of that. Buyers need good figures to be attracted. If the value was as good as everyone here seems to believe, there would be more than enough buyers to bring the share price up. TNT only has a market cap of about $140M. It's not like hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of new shares are being dumped on to the market, or like it would take all that much money to prop up the share price. Buyers just aren't there, and that's because of the figures.