gold worth watching, page-12

pffft, SP, come on maan, seriously,,,,,,,,always with the suttle jabs on the GOLD thread, what

"financial chaos, quantitative easing, printing unlimited amounts of money, bankrupt US States etc. etc."

occurred earlier in the week that motivated the spike from 1098 to nearly 1140?

,,,,,I'll tell you,,,NOTHING,,

it was merely trading, looked like many went ultra short at 1098-1105 and on low volumes someone with cash stepped in and boom the covering began....the other night it moved from 1105-1108 and in a few minutes on little to no contracts,,,it happens in Gold and other things all the time.....its merely trading......

Last night was heavier volume, USD rose significantly on the back of the INDIA move which was unexpected and which fueled a idea that the USA and others will probably do the same, and soon.

The reality currently IMo is that vast majority of short term traders have the position that the USD is going to fall and that GOLD is going to rise, of late they have been wrong, we are now at 1.350V EURO (late last year we were at 1.51) and with the Greece problems and the Euro itself being called into question the USD should continue to rise in the near term until it is sorted out, which is going to be along time, this in turn should pull gold down...


At present there is an awesome premium in Gold if we look at the historical correlation between the USD and the Euro or if we look at the Stock market levels. Its now 1.35 V the Euro, a massive upswing not called by many and the last time it was here Gold was $920ish, is a fear , easing, hedging premium of nearly $200 (or 20% ish current price 1120- historical price at 1.35 (920ish) = premium $200)justified? I dont think so for the following reasons:

Stock markets have had the biggest rally in history and continue to edge higher, you are getting better returns in the equities market. Fear Factor has to be reduced with the markets up so significantly

The USD has risen significantly against Euro which seems to have some structural problems that need to be addressed, last time it was at these levels GOLD was at about 920ish and the easing and "banker bailouts" were in full swing..

I also note the push up last time from about 1.33 to 1.35 USD vS Euro was very sudden and if this happens on the way back then GOLD price drops just just as sudden will occur imo, it could be the catalyst for a test of $1000

The currency hedge motivation to buy is off the table at this time, It was widely reported and spoken about even on HC that China who was buying big chuncks of IMF gold were diversifying away from the USD as they were often buying tresuries one day only to find they were worth less the next morning as the currency fell, hence the gold hedge......personally many of us profited by large spikes following this news and confirmation but the reality is now, China would be losing money buying Gold in USD with the price falling and the value of their treasuries rising with the strength in the USD. China has even publically said this month that GOLD is not the BEST asset

The push back up this year from what some called a conspiracy, the fall from 1227 to 1043intra day to a level of 1066 co incided with reports released that Sorris and others had significantly increased thier positions on gold and agains thte USD....almost immediately GOLD fought back, I wouldn't be suprised to see that Sorris and others have now reduced their holding this quarter and pocketed a fortune.....Gold has been rising in value with the USD also rising which historically doesnt last..

There has also been an explosion in the last two years in FX trading platforms with enormous leverage being offered to punters, this market is now swinging all over the place...just this week we say the USD go from 1.358to 1.38 and then back down to close at 1.35, these are enormous moves in days and send commodities and markets up and down like a yo yo....

AS for the conspiracy theorist, there has to be reasons other than "conspiracy, Cartels and comex when the price falls". It seems to be pulled out everytime there is a drop by BLOGGERS who make thier money selling call sheets........Gold trading has exploded in the last two years to become a large trading market and when someone large enough makes a play it can change the short term direction quickly.....After seeing the volumes in a trading day of $100 or $200M via IRESS and considering that every man and his dog claims to have billions under managment its easy for me to accept that someone with big pockets can change the price direction of GOLD on any day if they get it right.....

Could there be another side to the theory of manipulation, cartels and corruption, could it be that when comex is open the vast majority of traders and capital are at work and that larger capital flows can and often to affect prices.......

And, whilst many beleive the PAPER comex will collapse sending gold to the moon, I see it differently, if people wake up to find their ETF's and paper gold investments are worth nothing as they have no backing, the market will not distinguish imo, the ETF's being so big will be flooded by SELL orders as people move to protect thier capital first ask questions later and this will cause the price to CRASH,,,so I dont ever think this will happen...

Accordingly, if your long and the price drops 25 dollars and you lost money, its just a bad call...

Similarly if your short and the price spikes up 25 dollars and you lose money, its a bad call..

Its just trading!