XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-6016

"Russian Economy is fine they are actually making more now with the higher oil prices".

Not sure where @baron got his data to reach that conclusion?
For a start most of the economic data will no longer be published by Rosstat.
Comrade Putin has put in his own people into Rosstat so most of the numbers may not be very accurate ;-)

If you look at the Russian economy the biggest drivers is the Energy sector ie: gas, oil & coal & account for about 60% of all govt revenue. Gas & Oil was delivered to Europe mainly through pipelines. Nordstream 1 was the main pipeline providing gas to Europe but now are no longer operational. (First according to RF it was the US but looks like it was the UK that blew up the pipelines).Looking at the revenue from previous years the gas shutdown (loss of about 82%) is costing about 35 billion. The only pipelines operating is to China & Turkey.

Before the war Russia was selling about 3 billion barrels per day. Looks like they are now doing about 1 mil barrels per day. Some of the oil is being sold to China & India at a discount.
A good bell weather stock for the energy economy is Gazprom. In its history this the first time they are not paying dividends.
And what about the Corporate exodus ie: 1000+ western companies that have left causing the loss of about 5 million jobs ? Definitely will have an impact on the Russian economy ?That's about 30 years of foreign investment gone.
And what about the brain drain of about 500,000 educated young people who have fled the country ?

All of the above will be nothing compared to the effects "the mobilization" will have on the economy. According Vladislav Inozentsev, a Russian Phd economist living in Moscow, estimates upto 3-4 million people will leave their jobs rather than join the army . He thinks GDP will contract by more than 10%.

Finally there is a myth that China is coming to the aid of Russia. China is never going to sacrifice 1/2 trillion in trade with the US for the 70 billion with Russia & risk secondary sanctions. To their credit China was one of the first countries in the world to stop Russian airlines from overflights & not allowing landing rights, as most of the Boeing & Airbus fleet are now technically "Stolen" as they have not been returned to the leasing company but have been Nationalized.