Thanks @huaneng, @maltshovel and @VOGC for your earlier technical posts.
Just a few observations from myself. Happy for you to correct me if I'm wrong.
- No comments today in the announcement regarding net pay. Reason for this is that data to be gathered in the forward plan (pressure data and fluid samples) will be used to calibrate the logs and refine the cutoff extents of net pay. This will prevent them from either under or overestimating net pay figures.
- Likewise they were not specific about whether the potential gas bearing zones were within the Angwa only, or if this also includes the previously announced potential zones of interest in the Forest and Pebbly Arkose. My interpretation is that these are still included in today's reference to potential gas bearing zones, but are likewise subject to the additional logging data to firm up net pay which will then inform us as to their significance.
- In terms of our expectations for what a reasonable net pay will look like. I still think that we haven't seen anything to date that would indicate it will not be consistent with what has been seen on the seismic. ie. a number of 30m-40m reservoir zones consisting of stacked sands separated by shale or source layers.
- Is there still a risk of the reservoirs being water bearing? IMO, no. The terminology of "gas bearing" in today's announcement rules this out. Along with the high background gas readings reported previously. "Gas bearing" is exactly that - these are reservoir zones that contain hydrocarbons. Not water and not residual gas shows.
- By using the specific wording of "gas bearing", does that mean that we can rule out condensate or even oil? No again, IMO. This is a conservative comment and essentially the base case that they can build on with more data and fluid samples. The fluorescence and C1-C5 hasn't changed the potential for liquids.
- Only one or two shifts of drilling and maybe an initial wireline log run for the bottom 172m down to 3,800m. Sounds like we'll get another update on Monday morning and then later in the week for the main results once our kit gets on site.
All still sounding really positive to me.
Cheers...
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