response to unsolicated takeover offer..., page-4

"While it's very likely this will go ahead (i.e. you'll be able to personally exchange your shares for cash) 3-4% cash return doesn't compensate you for the risks. Even if you were 97% sure this was going to happen your expected value buying at 39c is 0."

You have no idea! Back to school...


What about prob of increased offer...probability TS will add 5-10c cash...probability another party puts in a higher all cash offer.

As you said, 0% prob offer withdrawn.

ie, downside 40%


Upside and E(X) must include prob of higher offer.


Lets say, 30% prob offer increased 5c. 10% prob offer increased 10c. 10% prob new party or TS raised to 50c+ (lets roll with 55c).
Remaining 50% = 40c.

E(x) = (0.3*0.45c)+(0.1*0.50c)+(0.1*0.55c)+(0.5*0.40c) = 44cps


All prob's above VERY FAIR AND REASONABLE AND REALISTIC IMO.



ZZZAAZZZ has been ZZZ to much!



Regards,
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