Not saying this is not a good announcement, I like the fact SW is trying to string announcements together here to build momentum so that's a positive step, last time he did this for 6-8 weeks it was followed up with a CR so lets see how this goes. What drove the SP a couple of years ago was the RESOURCE and the high grade and larger tonnage low grade hits, then SW had this vision to be a green hybrid "Industrials" type business with two components (upstream and downstream) with a 400% increase to scale 2MTPA to 8MTPA, the 2 x PFS clearly highlighted upstream runs basically at cost and the downstream holds all the profits and it didn't take long for the streams to get muddy very soon after a delay to the proposed start date was snuck into yet another presentation.
Lets not forget BSX are doing business in a communist country albeit a country that is trying to push forward in global commerce across some very interesting sectors but its still communist, do we have any mining permits in place as of yet? big risk. Drill all the holes you want at your expense but still can't produce a pound of Ni without a permit.
IMO there is at least one if not multiple CR to come Mr Market knows this, big risk, and before anyone jumps to those interviews flogging debt financing that's only going to be a % of the overall $800 million USD capex requirement. SW will still need at least $200,000,000 from the market to make this work and that's IMO a conservative figure it may well be more.
Major SH (Ecopro) our supposed partner that led us to this project in Northern Vietnam have been mute on this project development for years and are now slowly divesting their holdings, big risk.
There is simply no rush to be buying BSX right now even if they drop Vinfast as a signed partner you'll get shares in the low 20c range as there are some stale and frustrated investors with question marks over funding with brokers circling like vultures. Don't need anyone to defend the company or any individuals here this is just all IMO.
Ok lets look at the old Marco environment shall we. While I type this the ASX is only -6.3% off its ALL TIME highs that's with the variable mortgage rate in the mid to late 4% range, the Dow Jones Index is only 9% off its all time highs and the price of Nickel sits at $25,000 USD per tonne. As for wars well I'll leave that to our resident expert Rick.
Elephant in the room would it not be simpler for Vingroup to just make a takeover for BSX and own the lot? $200 million would get it done easily I would think. They obviously have a well diversified portfolio of businesses which includes the below so why not a materials business to support its EV ambitions, interesting don't you think.
A mistake directors make and its happened here unfortunately is taking their eye off the ball when it comes to the company's share price as it leaves the door open (low market cap $80 million aud SMH) to an opportunistic takeover and completely derail the shareholders (owners of the business).
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