Orchard flooding and rising water tables shouldn't be an issue at Loxton, Paringa, or Cullulleraine as the plantings are well above the flood plane and presumably on deep loam. Boundary Bend, Piangil and Hillston could be more problematic. As far as I can tell, the elevations above the river levels are less and the soil depths would be similarly thinner. The Hillston area is mostly flat and the unsealed roads in the area are now all closed, though due to the amount of rain, not riverine flooding.
The salt interception schemes along parts of the Murray would probably help alleviate any issue of rising salinity due to prolonged inundation, but I don't think they exist in the the three areas that I suggested were most at risk of being affected.
The Lachlan flooding shouldn't be prolonged, unless there are more falls of 100ml or higher. The Murray upstream of the junctions of the Wakool and the Murrumbidgee may also be over the worst in early December. But there is still a lot of water to come down the 'Bidgee and the peak flows down the Darling won't reach Wentworth for about six weeks and there is still more flooding to reach Bourke, another month upstream. And the La Niña is forecast to hang about until the new year.
The immediate threat to Select (and other almond growers) is, in my view, the atmospheric conditions, rather than the consequences of flooding. Although conditions were generally reasonable during flowering - apart from the shortage of bees, particularly in SA - it has been all downhill since then: rain, sometimes extremely heavy, on an almost weekly basis, and exceptionally low maximum and average temperatures (North West Victoria has had only 3-4 days above about 30º since winter and probably only about a week above 25º. Even if this reverts to a more normal seasonal pattern, it's almost certain that the crop will be immature, and therefore of poor quality, perhaps sparse because of the pollination issues, and subject to heat damage because of being several weeks behind growth/cropping schedule. Then there is the possibility of the subsequent late harvest being interrupted by autumn rains (as happened to the last season).
This might be an overly-pessimistic forecast, but the perceived high risk led to me selling out of SHV three weeks ago.
SHV Price at posting:
$4.80 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)