ORG Take over price $9/Share, why current share price is low, page-8

Here is my assessment of the "implied risk" in the current sp.

1. Offer Price $9.00 on 15 May 2023
less opportunity cost of say 0.75% per month for the 6 months until that time, ie subtract 6.75c for 5-6 months, ie minus 40s
So: current value of current offer $8.60
2. Pre-offer value as determined by 3 month volume-weighted av price (VWAP) $5.76
(by the way, you will find commentary by me after the 31/10/2022 release of the Sept Quarterly that I considered that ORG was worth much more than $6, but for the moment let's regard the market as the arbiter of "proper price" not me personally )
3. Bid Difference, pre ($5.76) to post ($8.60) is thus $2.84
4. Current sp as I write is $7.73, being $1.97 above pre-offer price .
5. As $1.97 is about 70% of $2.84 ( the Bid Difference), I conclude that "the market" thinks the chance of success is about 70%.
[However, if you think that the "fall-back" price if the bid fails would be around $6.60, then you would be saying that the market is currently pricing in only a 50% chance of success.]
As I think the fall back-price would be above $6.60 and the chance of success is a lot more has 50%, I am a buyer.