You are correct that "every day of production is decreasing the reserve" , but only the PDP reserve, not the PUD reserve.
Each time they drill a new well on the existing DSU's there is a step decrease in the PUD, but a step increase in the PDP reserve by the same volume . That PDP then decreases as those wells produce, but until another existing DSU well is drilled, there is no further effect on the PUD. Currently, the remaining PUD reserve volume after 4 wells drilled is roughly 17/21 of the original total reserves, or 22/26 if you include the new Bruins DSU. It is the PUD reserves they will be selling. A buyer will not want to buy the PDP wells and reserves as they have already flowed their flush production . This is why BRK will not want to develop the PUDS for exactly the reason you mention, and why they will sell them.
You say there is no buyer for the PUD's... I have already posted that in detail why there will be/ is buyer demand for BRK's acreage and reserves . I don't expect you to read the posts, so I assume you haven't because if you have, you will see why a buyer profits immediately on buying the reserve by booking the reserve NPV discount, which also has a positive impact on their RBLF ( Reserve Base Lending Facility) LVR , and then profit's again through developing and producing those reserves.
As to your points
1) Lenders are reducing their LVR's on RBLF which is why buying BRK's PUDs actually helps the buyers LVR position .
2) If this was correct you wouldn't have the high DSU application, permitting and drilling in the SWISH AOI.
Your point could apply more to low tier acreage, not the core of the core tier 1 BRK acreage.
3). You keep on mentioning too high depletion rates which has also been shown to be incorrect .If you have read the posts then I must apologise for making them too hard to understand.... must be my long winded writing style to cause you to lose focus... or are just deliberately ignoring facts and data to perpetuate the same debunked, erroneous argument .
To say BRK will go broke is a shooting the mouth off comment, without any analytical thought process. You can't go broke if you have no debt , are producing free cash from paid out wells which do not need any material further capital spent on them. Further more, any spend on expensive fracked horizontal wells will predominantly be the initial HBP drilling on new DSU's, which just creates more DPD reserves ( which BRK will keep) and cashflow, plus materially more PUD reserves , most of which BRK will sell.
Other spending on production wells will be on cheap, shallow vertical wells like Juanita , which if successful should open up a material new AOI, which should lead to multiple cheap , high return vertical production wells and an increasing production profile here until there are no more targets to drill.
BRK will benefit from the cashflow from the SWISH PDP reserves which so far have recovered their drilling capital for 2 of the 3 wells in under 7 months and less. These wells will produce after significant decline in the first 3-4 years ( 80-90%) for another 20+ years just adding low decline (4-8%pa) annuity style cashflow per well which is material when you have 4-5 wells at the high 70-80%WI level. Then hopefully, they will have many more small vertical wells drilled in the Bradbury AOI to add .
As posted previously when it comes to selling the assets, there will be a dance where almost certainly BRK will get less than they want, the buyer will pay more than they want, but both parties will walk away enriched by the process.
I feel like we have been here before.
