WIN 4.55% 4.6¢ win metals ltd

Ann: Euroz Hartleys Lithium Day Presentation, page-15

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  1. 786 Posts.
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    It's the assumptions I've made which lend themselves to the extreme side of conservatism as my knowledge of lithium DSO operations is poor. I know there is a crushing and a screening component which should at least partially remove some of the quartz, feldspars, micas and other minerals however I don't know to what extent the ore is screened and I don't believe CXO have put any details out on this process. So I'm running off no knowledge of the process and a very conservative assumption of contained spodumene ore only based off [tonnage * grade]. This significantly understates a DSO operation but it should highlight that there is potential for WIN to earn multiples of their current market cap in revenue from a DSO operation. In reality, that number could be significantly higher but I like to aim for conservative. Then it comes down to what value is placed on the nickel assets.

    RDT will be a good comparison as they're about 6-12 months in front of WIN currently and have a 12.7Mt @ 1.2% deposit and sit on a granted mining lease. RDT believe they have 6 months of permitting in front of them before they can develop a mining plan. They also want to produce 30,000-40,000t of DSO per month but they also want to do some beneficiation to remove the quartz which again I have no details on how this would be achieved or what the resulting price per tonne would be.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4869/4869231-a643e28f892097b544996b66553d08bf.jpg

    But if they want to build some level of infrastructure for beneficiation, then that is how WIN might beat RDT to DSO production if WIN choose to go for a straight shovels-to-boat approach. Looking at this slide from the presentation, if they believe they can get a lot of this done before year's end then in theory they could be moving dirt within 2023.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4869/4869220-b3ff2f4bbcf9a6452f00baa47ce6c21b.jpg

    If WIN can prove up a similar grade but smaller deposit of 4-5Mt @ 1.2%, and simply crush it and dump on a ship down in Esperance for $1200/dmt then assuming they can do between 30,000-40,000t similarly to RDT, what's $36-48M revenue per month? If they can maintain 100% of the project and claim a 70% profit margin after costs, and return 30% of NPAT to shareholders, thats 36-48c per share annually based off current shares on issue, but let's assume theres a 20% dilutionary event to raise capital for mining and crushing plant, that still comes in at 25-33c annual dividend. The numbers just become silly at this point and its beyond my knowledge so I would rather wait for a DSO scoping study or something of a more official nature from RDT, WIN or another to plug the numbers.
 
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