21/11 Indices, page-96

27/11/22. Sunday Report - The Week That Was. Week Ended 25/11/22,

XJO Monthly Chart.

The down-trend in the Monthly Chart may have been reversed.

The Hull MA13 has turned up. Remember that this was the first indicator to turn bearish back in October 2021. If it can remain up at the end of the month, we will have had one significant change on the indicators.

This week, the chart has finished above the 8-Month Exponential Moving Average. Another bullish sign.

If these gains can hold until the end of the month, we are entering a new bullish trend.

It is almost the end of the month, so I think we can confidently say that the long-trend has changed from down to up.

The chart is still below the Supertrend (7/1.5). That may act as resistance as it did for several months back in 2020.

Another bullish factor - Monthly RSI has moved back above 50. The last two times that happened after a bear market we saw a sustained bull market.

XJO Weekly Chart.

XJO had another strong upside week after the previous week's consolidation. XJO up +1.51%%/.

Hull MA13 and the Supertrend Line are bullish. The index has formed a double bottom. Using a standard measure rule, that suggests the XJO will make a new all time high.

The Index has closed above the 50-Week MA which is a bullish signal.

The down-trend line from May 2022 has also been broken to the upside.

Weekly RSI is at 60.3 - the highest it's been in the past year, and above the Monthly RSI.

XJO Daily Chart.

It is now time to tone down enthusiasm. RSI is now at 70.62 - above the overbought level of 70. So a pull-back may not be far away. Of course, RSI can go higher, but for a big Index like the XJO it is doubtful that we will see much higher levels before a pull-back. Any pull-back is likely to be bought, especially as we come into December.

Not shown on this chart is horizontal resistance set up by a high back in May, 2022. That increases the chance of a near-term pull-back

SP500 Weekly Chart

SP500 is lagging behind the XJO. It remains below the major down-trend line from Jan. 2022 and below the 50-Week MA.

Supertrend Line, 8-Week EMA and Hull MA13 have all turned up. Those are bullish events.

Weekly RSI is at 52.29 - above 50; but since the beginning of the year it hasn't been able to climb above 55. If Weekly RSI gets above 55, I think we can say the bear market in American stocks is over. Wait and see.

ASX Sector Results for this week.

All eleven sectors were up this week. The strongest was Utilities (XUJ). It is a small sector and been unduly influenced by take-over activity.

Defensives tended to do well - Property (XPJ) up +2.64%, Industrials (XNJ) up +2.44%, Health (XHJ) up +1.78%.

Financials (XXJ) saw a return to form, up +2.05%.

XMJ (Materials) was relatively weak, up +0.47%, as was Info.Tech (XIJ) up +0.14%

Relative Strength of Sectors.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is calculated using the default setting of 14 days - almost three weeks of trading. It provides a more reliable guide to changes in sectors than the one-week results which can jerk around quite a lot and, thus, RSI is probably a better guide to recent strength in the sectors. (Click here for a description of RSI.)

Nine out of eleven sectors are above the 60 level - that represents a bullish result.

XJO is just above the 70 level - expect a pull-back in the broad market.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

This is a lagging indicator but bullish signals are usually highly reliable.

This is a metric for the long-term investor. While NH-NL Cumulative remains below its 10-Day Moving Average, it is best for long term investors to remain cautious and defensive regarding the market.

The gap between the NH-NL Cum and the 10-Day MA is narrow and is tantalisingly close to turning bullish.

I've developed another metric StrongStocks-WeakStocks which is similar to NH-NL but gives signals a little earlier than NH-NL.

SS-WS is up for the third week in a row and has moved well above its 5-Week MA. The 5WMA has turned up - that's a bullish sign. This is only the second time this year it has given a bullish signal. The first one didn't last for long (back in late March). Hopefully, we will get a solid run-up this time as we are into a bullish seasonal period.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1. % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 70%, This Week 75%.

2. % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 84%, This Week 86%.

3. % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 46%, This Week 58%.

This is the first week when Stocks above 200-DMA rose above the magical 50% level.

Stocks above the 50-DMA remain overbought. That suggests we may see a pull-back

% of stocks above the 200-Day MA rose again this week. Steady improvement can be seen in the bar chart and the 5-Week MA is rising. This suggests we'll see 80% before we get a major pull-back.

Conclusion.

ASX had another strong move to the upside this week. XJO is now above the RSI70 - which is overbought. That, and other indicators, suggest we could see a pull-back in the next week or so. Any dip is likely to be bought given the strong basics of our market.

Stay Safe.