kent/lili mystery, page-13

You all, like myself are more likely to post on stocks you own rather than stocks you don't. The psycology of an investor. Postings are likely to be more positive if you hold, although not always the case, and posters who don't hold are more likely to post negative comments perhaps due to reinforcement.

There are many good papers on investor psycology, for example:

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/37_reinforcementlearning.pdf

It's very important to remain "unbiased" when it comes to investing.

One of the best psycological investors I know is Warren Buffett (well I don't know him personally). The buy low, sell high; buy in bear markets, sell in bull markets guy.

When it comes to Virax, I view the stock as a call option with some downside protection. The protection comes from the worth of the platform (which is sure to have increased with success in the field) and from the transgene license. The out of the money call option I price is the VIR-201 pipeline treatment. Should a phase II trial succeed, in a new class of drug, with minimal side affects, low cost of manufacture, in a huge market space, then there is quite a large "inflection" point.

I believe such an inflection point is coming for Virax. It's coming soon, database lock due in around a month, and trial results mid-year. There is a risk attached, but that's where the downside protection comes into play.

I own shares in Virax, and I will be holding at least till the Phase II VIR-201 results are announced. I always try to remain "unbiased", and yes I would have sold if there was a much larger spike after Transgene was announced. I'm sure others would have profited on this development, without having to have exposed themselves to the risk of Phase II results which is certainly going to represent volatility... and investors try to avoid that!

Please don't take my posts as advice or a recommendation, I simply post my reasons for buying or selling a security. I'm not "in love" with virax, it's just another opportunity I have founds during my short time in the market.

Cheers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5bTaDUsxHQ