aud-usd review the week ahead, page-121

Hiya Shadesofgray,

Like yer analysis mate, here's what I just popped up on my blog, neglected to read your posts so apologies for repeating the expanding wedgey megaphone thing...

Kind abizzare as on Friday I kept making coin of going long on this pair at just about every bounce, scalping out to the upside on the 5 min until the drop at around 7pm when I actually rang my trading buddy who I knew was also long and said I think downside will ensue... though I didn't have the nads or concentration to trade it as I was running on the indices at the time...

As you note action on this (AUDUSD) pair was a little strange particularly comapred with other USD crosses with the EUR for an eg making significant uproads overnight compared to our opair.. bizzarre...

anyways... from ze blog and in hindsight apologies for repeating some stuff you have already popped out above..

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Just a few Quick observances on the AUDUSD pair

Short term, the Hourly is giving off signals to the upside via the MACD and the Stochastics viz:

Hourly

Basically we appear to be running in a down channel at the moment as marked by the thick blue lines, but... current indications via the MACD Moving averages and the Stochastics would suggest that upside could be valid here.

Should upside occur, my current target is shown by the red cross hairs just a whisker under the .91 level, and there is some interesting resistancede baqsed on historical stuff as shown by the thin horizontal lin on the way there, which may indeed correspond to the top of the down channel.

While price is in a down channel, the appropriate trader response is to short at the top of the channel and close at the bottom, not the other way around... so it will creat an interesting conundrum if/when price gets there.

At these stage though I'd have to say that the current macd stuff and the stochastic on this timespan are very much suggesting that upside is the go.


Popping down to have a look at the 10 minute:

Not as clean cut as the hourly but we do have similar hints to the upside here with MACD movng averages showing lows of similar level while price shows lower lows...

As said, though, a little dodgy...

I do wish to mention particularly in relation to the comments about the channel on the hourly above...

Note how a 4th hit on the upside of the downsloping channel here resulted in a breakthrough.. so caution to myself on shorting on the hourly levvel should we hit the upper of the channel there, and if I am already long at that stage, a trailing stop might be better than a position closwe.. we'll see.

of other note regarding POTTENTIAL upside as per stuff on this 10 minute chart...
The bear flag as marked in red completed the projected downside (projected downside being the length of the move into the flag marked by the left most dotted line from start of drop to bottom of flag channel copied from top of flag channel to give downside target/projection)... completion of this projection gives the option of that particular move being finished and an opposite move occurring.

also of note is the localised historical action as marked by the green three wave structure and the two vertical blue line segfments, showing that the LARTEST action could be a three wave structure down, when taken in isolation, and as such I'd suggest that  a move of price above the thin blue horizontal line and then above the thicker target line could well suggest that price can rereach th .92 level.

So on these intraday timespans I am inclined to consider upsdie is the go... I await the morning's print and the possible gaps that may help with positioning on this pair.

Larger Timespans show some interesting things in my opinion:

Daily

This is well interesting...

The pooh brown lines are marking out a pattern which could suggest that and exapnding wedge is happening which gives us a downside target of anywher from .85 down.

If the projected Elliot Wave count marked in large purple is correct, then wave four (4) can pheasibly get down to the area of the beginning of wave 2, which is as low as .82 and would kinda nicely tie in with the expanding wedgy type pattern.

the last small red roman Numeral wave count and the thin horizontal line here hold the key in my opinion, and I beleive that if price gets below he thin purple line, then the lower targets of .85 and below are valid, as this latest price action from Feb tends to suggest that we are either in a three wave or 5 wave up at the moment on this timespan.. if five wave up price cannot afford to hang ot at these levels any longer as that becomes an impact on wave ii which I beleive is an EW no no.

Of interest too is the distinct cross over of the macd signal over slow as marked by the aroow, though this is also balanced out by
a: the moving averages are not at ectremes here and inOctober 2008 were far more extreme down than we have reached in this run up...
b: the arrowed stochastic level with the signal line JUST on the overbought level May well be a bounce point.

I reckon the next couple of days are going to tell an interesting story.

Knowing my luck the markets will range trade in a 20 pip range for the next 3 months, just to confuse the heck outta me :)))

;)