Just mulling this over further, I think what we need to see across the next...
12 months: Is, a deal signed (MPS or Regional OA with up-front money), or else a new CR becomes more-or-less inevitable. Also TGA provisional application at least lodged, and awaiting approval.
24 months: TGA provisional approval granted, providing the ability to sell Zilosul for OA for the first time (albiet Australia only). And/or another deal.
Obviously all trials / recruitment need to be going well in the background too, plus (hopefully) exciting data from 008 can precede discussions around potential Accelerated Approval via the FDA too.
However - as a minimum - to keep the company in cash while avoiding a CR (and assuming no major events e.g. a takeover), we're going to have to see the above bulleted points met imo.
Can they achieve that? It would be amazing if they did. I have to say though, my gut feeling is that we'll need a future CR. Delighted to be wrong, and i'm a very bullish holder, but that's how I feel about it. I'm happy with what I hold, and if it takes off i'll have no regrets whatsoever - but with all of that in mind, I might keep some powder dry to add either on potential June selling, or in the back half of CY23 in case a deal hasn't arrived.
PAR Price at posting:
$1.50 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)