Weekly Review Li Stocks - 2nd Dec 2022
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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I have also included my Diary - predictions, my holdings, my plans for the week. Caution around Diary - This is just my opinion/plan. Probability wise one person can be wrong many times, even all the time, so please use information accordingly. So for those who like leisurely reading, enjoy.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 54 stocks.
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Overall for this week - General Markets - SP 500 - For over couple of months I have been calling that we need to be above 3900 on SP 500. Also, a big likelihood that we may test 4100/4150. After much ups and downs, we closed at 4071 on Friday. So now we have crossed two very big resistance 3900 and 4000. And also somehow touched 4100 intraday this week. One of the things I have been repeatedly saying for couple of months is that we may reach 4100, but will happen after that, I don't know. Somehow we have reached 4100 and I am happy so see this - if you really feel about something and it reaches, that sort of happiness. But unfortunately that's not enough to confirm a bull run. We need to get over 4230 - that's a big one. That will confirm the rise and get us out of bear market.
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Overall for this week - Li stocks - After a weak last week, we did fairly well to finish in positive territory, although with the lowest margin of 1%. We lost 4% previous week, another 4% before that - so good to see that collapse holding. Macro is still strong. Last week I said I will look for firm reversal before buying back what I sold - I did that this week, from 40% cash I am now 20% - no firm reversal but looking good. If we look for very bottom or total confirmation, we lose a lot, so we have to take a stab. I am feeling bullish for this week. Although anything can happen, but at this stage we are more likely to finish in positive (I am talking across 54 stocks) than in negative. Lets see.
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Next week SP 500 and other indicators path:
- A big week coming up. I have been calling for a big fight at 4100/4150 level - its on now. This level has changed now to 4100/4230
- For next week - first target - say above 200 day moving average - so above 4060
- Next get to early 4100
- Finally get to 4230 - long term trend line sloping downwards. Overcoming this will be another bullish sign
- If we cross 4230, we don't know what will happen. Very few contemplated that we may reach here. We may have to take one step at a time and look what happens.
- For those not convinced of the rally, profit taking can happen at levels I mentioned
- Yields are decreasing, Dollar index falling, VIX falling - all positive for stocks
- No major economic drive for next week.
- My prediction - we may be stalled between 4000 and 4100 for the week. We spent two weeks around 3950, but finally made a move and got over not only 4000 but also 200 day moving average around 4060. We may spend similar time here. Thursday week is CPI data and after that Interest Rate rise and Powell speaking (roughly 8 more trading days left). That will give next major direction.
- Monday trading - Usual Monday tentative with slight decline
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.Personally: I still believe risk-reward is good. But short term volatility is there. Last week I was 40% cash. This week I am 20% cash. So bought good amounts earlier in the week. Depending on price action and market movements I will decide what next to do. But things are looking good so hopefully I buy more
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.What are analysts saying - They are confused. Some who have been calling for a big drop - yes around 20% drop to 3100-3400 have not given up. Rest who are more practical say to follow price action with an open mind. I have been surprised how much the analysts have got wrong this year. They have a very strong co-relation to predict what is going to happen based on what has happened before. 2022 has opened new charts, price actions. But many analysts are still stuck. In one way it makes sense. Probability wise there is a greater chance that history may predict future. In most times. But not all the time, and this is where some have had their failing. But it has helped me. When I was buying/selling. Eg even for this phase. I was writing that I am selling and reached 40% cash over a week back. Although indices did not bottom, most resource stocks were at very weak stage. Now that I have bought/buying, I am seeing many are coming back - though there is still way to go. So it helps. For those trading. long terms just have to hold tight and hope for best.
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.Stock specific Info:
- Its trading now below zone 6.8 to 7.6 zone - twice reaching 6.8
- It will need news or general markets to turn to go beyond that.
- It is at its weakest stage it has ever been, very close to June bottom.
- I don't like the price action - my holding is smallest in the whole year, just minimum - I follow price action and want to trade, its been weak in that area. For long termers, things may change - there is lot of potential, but announcement or price action should drive that. Its not happening now.
- For those with very long term view, a good opportunity to buy
- First thing it needs is to get to 7.7 to have a good chance of a firm reversal - failure to do that may confirm more weakness
- I am will only buy back on a great announcement or a strong price action - I have patience, I will wait if it does not happen now
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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Rise from June Bottom:
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MY DIARY - its good, but please be careful !!.
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(20min delay)