I, along with a few others, have been suspicious about the trading in Strike shares for quite some time. In particular, the fact that we keep releasing company-changing announcements, get a few cents boost to the price, and then get sold down again by bots a few days later (i.e. the CXXT trades one particular give-away).
So, I thought I just go back and review the price activity around the major announcement this year. I have restricted myself just to announcements that reflect unequivocally on the fundamentals of the company - i.e. flow rates, reserve announcement, the Koch agreement, and the WGO takeover.
Interestingly, we peaked at 36 cents after the stunning Walyering results. It has been downhill since then despite announcing over 41% upgrade to West Erregulla reserves and >600PJ of 2P/2C from SE and Ocean Hill.
Prior to the capital raising, you could make an argument that it was being shorted on speculation that this would occur. (I don't agree, given Walyering FID and WE reserves upgrade occurred during this period i.e. company-improving announcements in-and-of themselves).
But after the CR, we've released >600 PJ of 2P/2c reserves. This has resulted in very little in the way of share price improvement.
Even after the cash offer for WGO, which provides see-through value for STX's assets and has unleashed speculation about further consolidation in the Perth Basin, the STX share price only achieved a temporary spike. And now we are back to where we were before adding 600PJ of 2P/2C reserves.
I think the fact that Strike hasn't been able to hold onto any of its gains after WGO received a cash offer from Beach is the most suspicious thing of all. And let's not forget this has occurred in the context of record-high gas prices, both domestically and internationally.
I realise some still don't agree we are being set up for a lowball takeover offer. Fair enough. But I also thought I'd just post this chart as it shows just how far Strike has come this year, without really seeing the share price increase in-line with the radically improved fundamentals.
Hopefully it also inspires frustrated STX holders to continue to be patient, and not fall into the trap WGO now finds itself in.
I'm overweight in Strike already, but seriously thinking of raising some cash from elsewhere to increase my position.
(20min delay)