For those who may be interested:
The ABS has published an analysis of Provisional Mortality on the 25/11/2022:
Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - Aug 2022 | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au)
Key statistics
- In 2022, there were 128,797 deaths that occurred by 31 August and were registered by 31 October, which is 18,671 (17.0%) more than the historical average.
- In August there were 17,419 deaths, 1,926 (12.4%) above the historical average.
This analysis appears to indicate that there is excess mortality over what some base they calculate.
The base they use are:
"Throughout this report, counts of deaths are compared to an average number of deaths for previous years.
In this report, data for 2021 is compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the 5 years from 2015-2019 as was the case in previous publications.
Data for 2022 is compared to a baseline comprising the years 2017-2019 and 2021. 2020 is not included in the baseline for 2022 data because it included periods where numbers of deaths were significantly lower than expected. "
There is a large problem with the use of these particular bases as they make no allowance for !. Population Increases, and 2. Aging population.
I have used their data to recalculate the supposed excess mortality and compared it with an ABS age group population base calculated along the same method with Covid deaths adjusted out.
The results are as follows:
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Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
Column 9 |
Column 10 |
Column 11 |
Column 12 |
Column 13 |
| 1 |
Analysis of Excess Deaths in Australia using ABS Provisional Mortality Statistics released 25/11/2022 |
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| 2 |
Assumption: 2022 population = 2021 Population + 2021 change over 2020 (ie: 2022 pop = 2021 Pop + (2021pop - 2020 pop) |
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| 3 |
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Persons, 0-44 |
Persons, 45-64 |
Persons, 65-74 |
Persons, 75-84 |
Persons, 85 and over |
Total |
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| 4 |
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Deaths |
Population |
Deaths |
Population |
Deaths |
Population |
Deaths |
Population |
Deaths |
Population |
Deaths |
Population |
| 5 |
2015 |
8,072 |
14,412,137 |
21,092 |
5,849,554 |
24,199 |
2,006,690 |
40,550 |
1,078,669 |
63,531 |
468,945 |
157,444 |
23,815,995 |
| 6 |
2016 |
8,064 |
14,584,444 |
21,001 |
5,934,212 |
24,935 |
2,083,269 |
40,786 |
1,106,303 |
64,439 |
482,679 |
159,225 |
24,190,907 |
| 7 |
2017 |
8,177 |
14,778,432 |
21,270 |
6,028,110 |
26,195 |
2,152,609 |
41,894 |
1,144,470 |
66,815 |
490,581 |
164,351 |
24,594,202 |
| 8 |
2018 |
7,745 |
14,959,115 |
21,253 |
6,100,603 |
25,673 |
2,226,991 |
40,573 |
1,181,614 |
64,225 |
498,320 |
159,469 |
24,966,643 |
| 9 |
2019 |
8,023 |
15,137,277 |
21,481 |
6,171,573 |
26,330 |
2,291,492 |
42,242 |
1,232,723 |
66,730 |
507,152 |
164,806 |
25,340,217 |
| 10 |
2020 |
7,780 |
15,212,707 |
21,138 |
6,257,271 |
26,379 |
2,373,146 |
42,259 |
1,293,521 |
65,081 |
518,644 |
162,637 |
25,655,289 |
| 11 |
2021 |
7,727 |
15,097,179 |
21,284 |
6,277,121 |
27,595 |
2,426,916 |
45,305 |
1,352,603 |
70,035 |
534,260 |
171,946 |
25,688,079 |
| 12 |
2022 |
5,228 |
14,981,651 |
15,215 |
6,296,971 |
19,812 |
2,480,686 |
34,694 |
1,411,685 |
53,846 |
549,876 |
128,795 |
25,720,869 |
| 13 |
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| 14 |
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| 15 |
Baseline for 2021 |
8,016 |
14,774,281 |
21,219 |
6,016,810 |
25,466 |
2,152,210 |
41,209 |
1,148,756 |
65,148 |
489,535 |
161,059 |
24,581,593 |
| 16 |
Excess compared to Ave |
-289 |
322,898 |
65 |
260,311 |
2,129 |
274,706 |
4,096 |
203,847 |
4,887 |
44,725 |
10,887 |
1,106,486 |
| 17 |
Less Covid-19 Deaths |
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258 |
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242 |
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339 |
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386 |
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1,225 |
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| 18 |
Excess excluding Covid-19 |
-289 |
322,898 |
-193 |
260,311 |
1,886 |
274,706 |
3,757 |
203,847 |
4,501 |
44,725 |
9,662 |
1,106,486 |
| 19 |
Excess exCovid/Baseline % |
-3.6% |
2.2% |
-0.9% |
4.3% |
7.4% |
12.8% |
9.1% |
17.7% |
6.9% |
9.1% |
6.0% |
4.5% |
| 20 |
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| 21 |
Baseline for 2022 Year to Aug |
5,242 |
14,993,001 |
14,164 |
6,144,352 |
17,610 |
2,274,502 |
28,376 |
1,227,853 |
44,732 |
507,578 |
110,124 |
25,147,285 |
| 22 |
Excess compared to Ave |
-14 |
-11,350 |
1,052 |
152,619 |
2,202 |
206,184 |
6,318 |
183,833 |
9,114 |
42,298 |
18,672 |
573,584 |
| 23 |
Less Covid-19 Deaths |
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535 |
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987 |
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2,199 |
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4,007 |
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7,728 |
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| 24 |
Excess excluding Covid-19 |
-14 |
-11,350 |
517 |
152,619 |
1,214 |
206,184 |
4,120 |
183,833 |
5,107 |
42,298 |
10,944 |
573,584 |
| 25 |
Excess exCovid/Baseline % |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
3.6% |
2.5% |
6.9% |
9.1% |
14.5% |
15.0% |
11.4% |
8.3% |
9.9% |
2.3% |
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Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
| 1 |
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Total |
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| 2 |
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Deaths |
Population |
| 3 |
2015 |
157,444 |
23,815,995 |
| 4 |
2016 |
159,225 |
24,190,907 |
| 5 |
2017 |
164,351 |
24,594,202 |
| 6 |
2018 |
159,469 |
24,966,643 |
| 7 |
2019 |
164,806 |
25,340,217 |
| 8 |
2020 |
162,637 |
25,655,289 |
| 9 |
2021 |
171,946 |
25,688,079 |
| 10 |
2022 |
128,795 |
25,720,869 |
| 11 |
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| 12 |
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| 13 |
Baseline for 2021 |
161,059 |
24,581,593 |
| 14 |
Excess compared to Ave |
10,887 |
1,106,486 |
| 15 |
Less Covid-19 Deaths |
1,225 |
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| 16 |
Excess excluding Covid-19 |
9,662 |
1,106,486 |
| 17 |
Excess exCovid/Baseline % |
6.0% |
4.5% |
| 18 |
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| 19 |
Baseline for 2022 Year to Aug |
110,124 |
25,147,285 |
| 20 |
Excess compared to Ave |
18,672 |
573,584 |
| 21 |
Less Covid-19 Deaths |
7,728 |
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| 22 |
Excess excluding Covid-19 |
10,944 |
573,584 |
| 23 |
Excess exCovid/Baseline % |
9.9% |
2.3% |
FYI
Regards
SP
