STX (ASX) Ann: Strike increases ownership of Warrego to 19.9%

Originally posted by Brobel: ↑

Hi dakook.

I also hold WGO, although a much smaller holding compared to my STX holding. I held onto WGO as I felt the fundamentals of it's assets was significantly discounted by the market and IMO this would eventually be corrected, most likely thru an M&A transaction. I must say I was surprised that WGO was moved on first instead of the JV operator STX although I think STX's first move forced others to enter the bidding earlier than they wanted (given the fact neither BPT nor Hancock had built up any holdings in WGO).

Regardless of BPT withdrawing their bid today, I always felt Hancock would win the battle for WGO (barring any other bigger party coming along which I certainly would not rule out, in fact I would put money on it). Either way, WGO as an independent entity is fast coming to a close, either to be consumed by STX via a perhaps higher scrip bid or by Hancock or by a yet unknown 3rd party (I'm thinking WDS, STO, perhaps MIN).

IMO Hancock made their move on WGO to block BPT from grabbing WE... I don't think Hancock is keen to take out BPT... but I do think they are keen to grab WE and ultimately their main goal is to takeout STX. Funnily enough I mooted this scenario not long ago, when POSCO took over SXY and then invited Hancock to go halves on the deal. I thought it would make sense for Hancock to do a similar deal in WA, as she would need quite a bit of gas for her mines and IO and mineral processing etc. I mooted that she could move onto STX/WGO and then invite another "friendly" to also go halves on the deal... a $1bn+ deal which is not going to stretch Hancock but I think she doesn't mind a good JV. You never know, it could be one with MIN... given she has a stake in MIN's JV partner NWE. The two of them may wish to consolidate the PB and go halves on gas for their mining & processing operations, as well as Urea, supplying domgas and of course, LNG thru NWS. Got to love all the possible combination and permutations. I love mulling over these things... obviously with the aim of getting it right before the rest of the market does.

But today's trading in WGO is a tell tale sign that the market feels this tussle is not over yet and I would agree with this. Heavy volume today ~2% SOI and not once falling below 29c. Will we see another offer next week?

In fact as I write this post, I see Regal have increased their holding in WGO to just over 9%. They have been buying some large chunks even this week at ~31c... about $1m worth... so does beg the question, what do Regal know about other potential bidders out there? I know Regal are quite opportunistic and would be very keen to throw their weight around in the coming M&A negotiations.

Lets see what the next few weeks holds.

GLTA

Expand

In my view WGO is gone-Gina wins.The cash offer will win.
Then does STX survive.
Why would Gina want to maintain a partnership-as a non operating junior partner- with what is an essentially penniless company-comparatively.
STX has a great idea in Haber,great staff,Stuart is out'g but just no money.
Its easier to take over-maybe with Min Res- and just pay Stu to stay.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
24	628101	18.0¢

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628101

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18.5¢	995580	6

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995580

No.	Vol.	Price($)
14	470181	0.180
28	1228739	0.175
20	1480892	0.170
8	732402	0.165
12	1162962	0.160

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470181

0.180

1228739

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1480892

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732402

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1162962

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.185	995580	6
0.190	1150837	10
0.195	1337559	14
0.200	3547202	14
0.205	819766	8

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0.185

995580

0.190

1150837

0.195

1337559

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3547202

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819766

(20min delay)
Last 18.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $515.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
18.5¢	18.5¢	18.0¢	$641.3K	3.524M

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