Thank you for response, Cheyne. Firstly, don't take much notice of my above post, however it has given you an ideal platform to make some important observations. My post was designed to elicit some sort of weird response from "you know who" who has to have the "last word" on everything, and I was not disappointed. Anyway, enough of the fun, let's get serious.
Your points.
These 4 are why I still hold:
1. Daelim partnership + equity stakeAgree. I don't know that I would call it a partnership, but it was financially timely and a great show of confidence in the project. I think they really want this contract.
2. SA Major project status and support
Agree
3. Urea Prices
Generally, agree. While prices are expected, by the time NRZ is in production, to return to a long-term value, they should still continue to climb following the continued need for urea. My concern is that the world will develop a strong dislike to carbon being taken out of the ground and then being injected into the atmosphere, particularly with the production of green hydrogen gaining traction, which would cut into the granulated urea market.
4. MC sub $150M
Not sure about the significance of this one. I'll leave to the reader.
Notable mentions:
1. Pre-FID funding apparently almost secured (as per recent interview).
Should be, but with a high degree of skepticism.
2. Chairman believes project funding is the “easier” of all milestones (as per recent interview).
Yes, I keep hearing this on his interviews. They are taking their time to analyse offers and get the best deal, but there is never any real detail. I just get the feeling that they are sifting through a number of rather unattractive offers trying to get the best deal for shareholders.
3. BFS imminent (pending FEED completion and funding).
Yes, FEED and funding should be achieved by now, with associated payments.
4. PPL granted.
Important milestone.
5. Boxes ticked for the “green/carbon neutral” aspect.
Another milestone achieved.
What you have given us here, is a good summary of how the project is progressing, but no mention of shareholder value, the reason everyone is invested.
Your concerns.
1. Current cash balance. Pre-FID funding required yesterday or else another CR + delays could ensue.
2. Potential massive dilution via pre-FID and/or project funding. The apparent interest in the project hopefully means multiple “shareholder
friendly” options are on the table.
Agree.
It is difficult to name a milestone that has been achieved on time. Continual project delays, share price dilution.
Major investors have the upper hand when it comes to influencing the share price. Note the Investor picks the best VWAP from the preceding 20 days, takes a further discount, and the rest is history. And good for them. I expect a similar thing to happen with the pre-FID funding, unfortunately. It comes at an unfortunate time i.e., when the share price is low.
My concern is, that to get the required funding, shareholder value will have to suffer, and maybe quite drastically. But I have said on numerous occasions, that if it is not in DAELIM's interest, they will not let NRZ become insolvent, but we do not know for sure what their agenda might be.
Never have I said, to my recollection, that this project was not technically or economically feasible. They just have to resolve all issues regarding approvals and funding. A pretty tall order, but not impossible.
I've carried on a bit, but I think the general thrust of my thoughts is there. As for "egg on face", I'm still scraping some off.
On a lighter note, ww77wuwei says "news is coming tomorrow". I think he might have been into the "fortune cookies".
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