It is frustrating seeing the share price movements at the moment and they are, as often happens in the market, not logical. But then, we all know that the market is not a rational beast, at least not in the short term. DRE is not the only company where really good news is accompanied by a fall or stagnation of the share price. Without cross promoting have a look at STM which today announced a seriously good mineral resource estimate for their gold-copper porphyry deposit in Ecuador and even better a standout exploration target and the share price dropped significantly. It has been the same with DRE recently. As an old geo, I focus on the fundamentals and, critically the geology and exploration results. I don't like the fact that the share price seems to be disconnected from the fundamentals and the continuous flow of what is really good news, but - for me - that is short term static noise and if I focus on the fundamentals with DRE then I see nothing but upside. It might take a couple of months, but it will eventually be reflected in the market price. A simple test for me is the performance share hurdles that they have set with anticipated resource tonnages. You don't suggest a resource tonnage of plus 30 million tons (the 3rd performance tranche) of economic grade REE if you are not confident.
I first found DRE a couple of years ago when Dean presented at a conference in Brisbane, and I was seriously impressed not just by him and his staff's credentials but what I saw as one of the best portfolios of projects that a junior on the ASX held. In a word, stunning. At that time my only concern was shortage of capital and the number of shares on issue, but I was so impressed with the projects and their standout potential I bought in, and in hindsight at a price of around 2c I was lucky. The capital issue has been dealt with, at least for the moment, and the only negative for me, in terms of my investment criterion in early-stage juniors, is the number of shares on issue. This will no doubt be dealt with at some future time with a capital consolidation but probably only after we see a significant re-rate of the share price based on exploration results. So, the only downside of this matter at the moment is that with so many shares on issue it allows those vulture day traders to essentially keep a cap on the share price. However, with the exploration results that I fully anticipate we will see in the coming months, even that problem will diminish.
We must not forget that whilst current focus is on the REE work/projects, and rightly so, DRE has a number of other compelling projects, not to mention a very decent JV with a major, so i fully expect positive news low from multiple projects in the coming months. There are not many juniors that you can find on the ASX with projects that have the potential to deliver a game changer and a company maker, and I earnestly believe that DRE is one of those. Deans' enthusiasm and ability is palpable and infectious, and I also think that he has a great and proficient field team. For me, the question is not do I make money on this company but when and how much.
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13 | 3372523 | 0.014 |
6 | 2445284 | 0.013 |
5 | 3180555 | 0.012 |
2 | 1590999 | 0.011 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.017 | 1549740 | 9 |
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