Hi CountStonkula,
The lack of data makes any ball park estimate just too problematical at this point. For clarification purposes I've shown below the information I used / derived in my ball park estimate - which is effectively a hybrid given the lack of data i.e.
GRV - IVZ's pre drill Maximum Case
Porosity, Gas Saturation and Gas Recovery Factor - from Mobil and very likely their Most Likely (ML) or Mean Case
Gross Rock Volume - based on IVZ's 200sqkm structure scaled from Mobil's data closure - which I have taken as their pre drill Maximum size case
What we lack here is any information on the potential Minimum & Most Likely (ML) cases - this information would come from analysis of the potential for variations in: seismic data +/- TWT pick & structural interpretation variations, velocity field variations form applying different methods etc.
For Porosity, Gas Saturation and Gas Recovery Factor - these are from Mobil and I have assumed they would have used a Most Likely or Mean value
You could research these as noted below but your still missing the key GRV values for the Minimum & Most Likely (ML) cases.
Fm. Volume Factor - +/- Estimates could be made from the Most Likely
From what IVZ has communicated, and building in the information they would have, all going well - I would be surprised if the Net/Gross wasn't at or above the 20% level for the 900m gross column they've mentioned.
GLTAH
Cheers
VOGC
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