The $A is at .67 not .7 and no tax will be paid given the tax loses.
So the $A tin price at the current exchange rate is $36231 and less royalty is $34782 giving revenue of $174 million.
At your cost estimate that gives $44 million in EBITDA with no tax (tax benefit in accounts is $42.5 m). In fact presumably some interest earnings by now.
I am not sure where you get your cost per tonne estimate from? If you take last year's operating costs and up them 15% that gives around $25000 per tonne, or $125 million plus admin of $4 million. Remember we are spending money at present through Area 5 to reduce unit costs, but higher output, energy and labour will raise total costs.
That gives $49 million EBITDA with no tax. This gives almost double your number.
Obviously the tin price and costs over the next year are big variables, as our differing calculations show. We will do worse in the last quarter, but better as the year progresses and Area 5 costs reductions come through fully.
MLX Price at posting:
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