Chance of Success, page-26

Hi fearlessninja, so the ERCE chance of success was set at 14%, that is true. That being said, this is the first well in the basin so the COS was always going to be low. ERCE also chose not to consider the direct hydrocarbon indicators in their assessment. Finally, Scott talked about a bit about the COS in one of the presentations or JRI podcasts (cant remember exactly which one sorry) and my takeaway was he thought their numbers were overly pessimistic (i.e. they may have double dipped on some aspects when calculating the COS which would have made the final COS lower than what Invictus would have calculated).

All of that aside, the COS for the first drill in an undrilled basin was always going to be low (because they had nothing to calibrate any of their seismic etc. Against). You're better off concentrating on the fact that the current well has confirmed the presence of source rock, a stonking great seal, and trap. These were the key risks coming into this drill. Its also confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons (definitely gas, possibly light oil). What we want next is confirmation of hydrocarbon types and the fact they are movable, and the size of the net pay zones. Then in the more distant future it will be all about flow testing and confirming any discovery is commercial.

Once the current well is complete, ERCE will update their model with all the new data and I'm sure the COS will increase quite a bit.