I doubt that processing third party monazite ore concentrates is on Amanda's mind. Why would Lynas have any interest in importing ANY ore concentrates when they have a world-class high-grade low-radioactivity generational resource that holds their attention?
Moly was committed to the HCl route at Mt Pass; that was part of their trouble in the past. HCl is expensive and very tough on many materials though new ones continue to improve; there are reasons to prefer the HCl route but ONLY if it can be successfully recycled (the tricky bit). Bastnasite can also be processed with H2SO4, fwiw.
The MP ore is lower in all magnet elements DyTb-NdPr and Sm. They are on top of a mountain hunting for water in drought-stricken California. Ugh, not a good look.
I very much hope that MP succeeds. I am not of the opinion that MP is competition but rather a co-builder of the ROW REE market. If we can get a second ROW source of REEs, it would be very helpful to the downstream market makers. Of course that depends on MP succeeding at a scale they have never attempted before.
IMHO, every Lynas investor should hope that MP succeeds. China wants them to succeed; they will pay up for quality magnet materials for the downstream value-add. Turning oxides into quality useful metals and alloys is not a simple task; it is almost entirely done in China. Turning those metals into magnets - almost entirely done in China. The point of Lynas and eventually MP is NOT to feed China more raw materials but to build ROW downstream manufacturing to use more, a lot more, enough to reclaim the lost high-end markets that are very quickly establishing themselves at scale in CHina and only in CHina.
If MP ever "competes" with Lynas, it will be in a market that does not currently exist. One that most if not all non-Chinese investors are hoping arises to create demand they struggle to meet, the very same situation China finds itself in.
There will never be a surplus of magnet metals DyTb-NdPr and Sm; which means there will never really be a price competition between MP and Lynas. Magmetals will always be a seller's market.
Investors looking into Lynas see the flag of Japan firmly planted on Mt Weld until AT LEAST 2038 (the Japanese have embedded geologists in Mt Weld resourced development team, at the request of Amanda). They have presented Lynas with ever-larger offtakes and for more than Lynas has ever made. I have no fear whatsoever of "competition" presented by any REE resource that might come into the picture in the foreseeable future and for another ten years after that; I welcome all to produce as peers.
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$8.88 |
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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