Tesla is already lowering its prices. I agree with everything you wrote, but I think the timing is not in the near future, its already here.
I think sodium batteries make sense for grid storage etc, but obviously not for cars, as weight is an issue. I wouldnt be surprised if Tesla announces the use of sodium batteries for their power walls. If I was Tesla, I would weaponise any such announcements in order to lower lithium prices even more.
I think in February the market will have a taste for what's ahead in 2023. People will still buy vehicles, albeit less than before, but the percentage of purchases being an EV will continue to rise. As such, lithium demand will stay strong. PLS will still be making billions, and the company will have grown too (calix, P1000, Posco JV) and the cash reserve!
I see PLS back on an upwards trajectory by Feb 23.
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