General Discussion, page-336

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27/12/22

21:30

Post #: 65453822
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Originally posted by Akita1: ↑

do you think a buy out of the neighbours is on the cards?

Azzz this is my take...
AVL don't need to combine with/takeover TMT to have a 50yr mine life as with 10+km of strike, they already potentially do. IMO TMT's proposed southern Yarrabubba mine (the one completely surround by AVL and 'integral' to their success) will never be mined successfully (or at all) by TMT. It's hidden in their integration study in small print and not discussed as it's another 'elephant in the room' but apart from being 20k's away (by road) it's not logistically feasible. It requires 3 or 4 separate pits which have to be filled in before the next and due to this cannot be mined below 185m, unless it's from underground. I can see this being bought by AVL some time in the future. This leaves their much larger northern Ga-banintha mine which they'll struggle to make economic as they cannot deal with oxidised ores like AVL can. They'll be moving a lot of overburden before they find something economic to process. This is what distinguishes AVL over TMT. Sure they've taken an excruciatingly long time but their methodical approach in understanding the processing of weathered ores de-risks them and their project.
View attachment 4941115
Also TMT have to wait for a huge 154km gas pipeline to be built (which is only in preplanning stage). AVL have gas right near their proposed Tenindewa Vanadium processing facility, which is not being assessed by the EPA (land clearing only) so have no extended waits.

Punters already know AVL will be moving their V concentrate ~450km for processing which means a LOT of trucks and increase in OpEx. This is going to be a lot of dirty expensive diesel. However, in the future (*puts on rose-coloured glasses) AVL will substantially decrease this cost by using the new electric (or hydrogen) trucks. A big upfront cost but able to be charged by solar/vrfb.
View attachment 4941117
Regarding EPA approval: implying delays are being caused by slow EPA 'public servants' is naive and shows a lack of understanding for the process. AVL didn't rush their studies and submission like their ill-prepared neighbours who were hit straight-up with an EPA imposed Scoping Study (referenced in this post #64101271 for clarity). Of course we're prepared for delays but the fact is AVL is on track for EPA approval in 2.5yrs as apposed to 'worst case scenario' 4.5yrs for TMT. Saying we're 2 years behind is simply not true. Time will tell...

In the interests of information for all, non holders/TMT holders should be welcome here but please have something factual or intelligent to add.

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This has to be one of the best posts on this forum and fully reinforces my opinion.
Thanks Akita1.

AVL Price at posting: 2.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
9 Upvote

4 Great analysis

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