99.95% High Purity Manganese, page-827

First 827 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Bankit87

57 Posts.

9

27/12/22

22:49

Post #: 65454123
Share

Originally posted by WhatsTheTip: ↑

Putting a value on E25 is difficult because there are so many important unknown's. Even if the issue of valuing the ore business's is parked, HPMSM is still hard to value due to not yet knowing the likely future scale, the deal that will fund capex or whether the margins presented in the scoping study will be preserved or even enhanced by the time final decisions occurs (if it does indeed happen). These issues noted, the initial scoping study indicated US$73m, US$141m & US$205m annual operating cash flows from 50kt, 100kt and 150ktpa HPMSM train operations (and volumes of fertilizer grade at only modest margins).

The 10 Oct 2022 HPMSM update implied a future improvement was coming as the fertilizer grade element was reduced if not eliminated and 75kt input ore become 65kt HPMSM. The scoping study was $1,950*50kt=$97.5m of revenue (+$15m for fertilizer grade). This would become $126.8m of revenue from one train [$1,950 * 65kt]. The ore input volume drops from 78.4kt to 75kt so there may also be a cost reduction efficiency. A single train may therefore now have circa $14m more revenue per train for presumably similar or lower costs. This will become clearer with the HPMSM feasibility due about now. If E25 were to get 2-3 HPMSM trains running, along with the ore operation, they would be >A$500m in annual revenue.

If there is US$70-80m/yr of pre-tax profitability from each HPMSM train and if E25 gets even one train built it would appear a market cap approaching A$1b is appropriate. This all assumes the modelling is correct, which is unwise based on the reported Ore results to date. If the off-take customer(s) and associated volumes are strong enough to warrant 2-3 or more trains then a built and operating properly valuation could easily approach A$2-3b. How may additional shares are necessary to get to these valuations - that's a big unknown. If shares on issue remain close to the current 185m on issue existing shareholders could be looking at $10/share in three to five years. That would allow a lot of upside to still exist, even if the share price did increase strongly.

Does the market believe this will happen with these metrics. Nope. Not even slightly, which is why the share price is around $1. Given the ore operation hasn't yet delivered useful profits, its unclear if the market's value is based on the ore operation turning around, it profitably expanding or an assumption that there is a small chance HPMSM will occur.

Expand

cheers for the reply and the good read, I'm sure I'll get my answer soon enough..it's Happening

E25 Price at posting: $1.05 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

RNU

Renascor wins a funding boost given it wants to produce a critical mineral – but $5M award pales in comparison to some

AUG

Augustus sees imperial share rise on high-grade Cu and gold results at Ti-Tree

I88

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

TLX

Telix jumps 11.6% as US government indicates proposed medicare changes won't affect prostate cancer drug

TX3

Canadian fieldwork yields multiple pegmatites for Trinex

There are more pages in this discussion • 128 more messages in this thread...

First 827 Last

Add E25 (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 20.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $45.08M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
21.0¢	21.0¢	20.0¢	$69.80K	339.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
10	462169	20.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
21.0¢	18326	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
10	462169	0.200
1	50000	0.195
4	22828	0.190
1	2709	0.185
5	460000	0.180

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.210	18326	2
0.215	7400	2
0.225	24999	1
0.230	35000	1
0.235	3126	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 11/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

E25 (ASX) Chart

99.95% High Purity Manganese, page-827

Renascor wins a funding boost given it wants to produce a critical mineral – but $5M award pales in comparison to some

Augustus sees imperial share rise on high-grade Cu and gold results at Ti-Tree

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

Telix jumps 11.6% as US government indicates proposed medicare changes won't affect prostate cancer drug

Canadian fieldwork yields multiple pegmatites for Trinex

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

99.95% High Purity Manganese, page-827

Top Stories

Renascor wins a funding boost given it wants to produce a critical mineral – but $5M award pales in comparison to some

Augustus sees imperial share rise on high-grade Cu and gold results at Ti-Tree

Infini soars 50% as company reveals it could’ve just made uranium history – redefining what it means to be “high grade”

Telix jumps 11.6% as US government indicates proposed medicare changes won't affect prostate cancer drug

Canadian fieldwork yields multiple pegmatites for Trinex

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News