Yeah there will no doubt be a lot to be excited about in 2023.
Not least is the simple fact that despite the temporary shorting activity on the stock and whatever you want to presume about some of the Top 20 holders , the reality is that ' Retails ' outside of the top 20 s
So if we assume that the rules still apply around ' unmarketable parcels ' being represented by parcels under $500 , the Numbers per the annual report dated 26th September would suggest that the 2,523 quoted would have to be holding around 2,270 shares to be in this category.
So therefore it follows by definition and elimination then , that the 432 holders are really the holders who are holding $500 dollars worth of Sayona shares and up to $1,000. So there are really 2,955 holders in the FIRST category of $1 - $1,000.
So the REAL total of shareholders has to be the 38,890 PLUS the 2,523 or 41,413 holders right ?
So when you start to work backwards and do the math from there , this would mean that the Top 20 away with their 48.19 % of the Company held , the other 51.81% is held by OTHER large holders and the presumed ' Retail ' investment side of the Market .
So rephrasing this , that's 99.95% of the available holders holding 51.85% of the register with less than 1% of the other holders holding 48.19% of the Company...
Irrespective of all this and even when you consider the different categories up to say the 100,001 and over shares held and assume that each category is represented by the maximum number held based on continuing ' flexing ' and moving perpetual averages , the OTHER categories below the 100,001 would represent approximately 1,874.22 billion shares
So then if you take the total present number of SOI to be 8,310,264,073...... less the 4,004,716,257 represented from the Top 20 in September 2022- it would then leave the remaining balance of 4,305,547,816 shares being represented by the 51.85% of the register and the 99.995% of ALL other shareholders.
So if we then deduct the 1,874,220,000 shareholders holding less than 100,000 , we get a total estimated amount of 2,431,327,816 being held by the 6,206 holders in the category of 100,001 and above . And so this then represents an AVERAGE holding balance of around 391,771.
But we know also that there are many many holders holding parcels in the order of many multiples of millions outside the Top 20 and which would lower the average being held by this last category being even less than this 391,771.
So the question then becomes whether or not a holder of this size or even a holder sitting on well above the average balance with say 500,000 would even consider shorting with their own holdings parcels or portion of their parcels.
More like the less than 1% of stockholders who sit on 48.19% trying to leverage across more from the 51.85% than the other way around. Or could it be that the 51.85% is indeed trying to accumulate from the Top 20.
Well I'll leave that judgment to each individual after knowing that the Top 20 holders had decreased only slightly from the 42.60% held on January 31st 2021 to the 41.78% held at 6th May 2021 ......to the then increase to 44.75% . And this was even after the additional almost 1 billion of shares issued ( 921,294,929 ) or only 15.2% expansion in the share capital from May 2021 to Sept 2021.
So then the share capital from September 2021 to now increases again over 1.3 billion of shares and stills goes up 7.7% in representation after this almost 18% increase in share capital.
If that's not ' Accumulation ' between these 3 or 4 significant milestone represented dates then I don't know what is.
And what so what we appear to be saying and / or asserting is going on is that the Top 20 almost purposefully increased its stake a total of 13.1% since January 2021 after issuing a total of 4,727,309,108 ( which includes those to Piedmont ) and still manages to add the amount held by the Top 20 of 2,478,327,476 in increasing this overall percentage.
And so then has to wonder how much does the Top 20 holders want to lever away from the volatile weak hands of Retail. I mean an additional cornerstone 10% further holder of our own would complete this task in one fell swoop. But again , you would definitely see this coming right. Like say if RIO or indeed even the stronger indicative candidate of Quebec's own ArcelorMittal Mines Canada stepped up with a 15 - 20% stake.......
All of a sudden Retail is caught napping with well under 50% of the register held.
And on that note , I bid you all a Very Merry Christmas Day ......and a ' Feliz Navidad ' to ALL our
Korean friends out there who might be lining up their own support behind Sayona Mining , Quebec CANADA......... Here's a song for you all as well.......
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