OCC Trading, page-1254

Its small cap biotech investment Hotdog, in a crappy market for small cap biotech investment, at the risk of stating stuff you know.

The domestic professionals are poor - how does a stock an analyst covered "fall off their radar" with several TGA/FDA approvals since they last covered, national TV coverage and a big US pharma deal? Something I've said time and time again on here. Price/information efficiency in Aussie equity markets particularly, is poor. In biotech's its crap. Your analyst at Fat Tail (and some of the chumps I flagged at Shaws) classic example of why.

There is no one single predictable thing that will propel OCC (and a crap load of random moves both before and when it makes a broader geometric progression), but certainly OCC getting some coverage at Bells (and hopefully Fat Tail investment thanks to your efforts) will help as the unoriginal portfolio managers at bigger superannuation funds (what drives the Aussie market mainly) get to finally discover OCC's business. All in stochastic process/geometric Brownian motions theories on stock prices I have hinted at before.

I've been short Tesla for a while now on the more simple principle of it being ridiculously overvalued. Its recent prompt fall from high far more to do with random events related to the CEO that I never could have predicted - hence I bought back progressively far to early. Even in the big well known stocks, predicting what causes sustained one way moves in stocks is so difficult. Its recent sustained fall has surprised me (it initially resisting the larger US FED taper/inflation/interest rate falls that saw far better companies like Nvidia [I held for years), Meta, Palantir and AMD, etc, more than halve in price).

I am a value investor fundamentally (only 10% of investors apparently) but am not shy of trading against trends (90% of investors apparently), very cautiously, buying low, selling high and buying lower hopefully, rinse, repeat. We all know OCC is ridiculous value down here given its potential forward earnings, which are now far more probably after the BH deal. But its little consolation for us lot as OCC shareholders as the stock languishes unchanged at 40 cents still! It really is ridiculous given the deal.

Look at the stupidity at BNPL share prices a couple of years ago. Some of the small cap lithium and rare earth miner share prices a year ago. All very viable lucrative areas of business, but ridiculously over priced stocks due to unoriginal, exuberant, trend investing. The likes of Nikola, Rivian and Lucid falls from high, etc. Its hilarious how many Tesla investors thought they knew the future and everyone else was dumb, when they didn't have a clue on the huge gamble Musk took on foregoing LIDAR for algorithmic learning and camera based depth perception (he has quietly recently conceded defeat and filing a new 4D Radar patent recently as Appollo (Baidu) and Waymo (Google) and others powered past them on self driving with LIDAR). Ironically it was Musk's foray into Twitter that finally burst the bubble.

MSB is on the verge of a BLA resubmission for GvHD. There have been an array of autologous CAR T-Cell approvals recently in the US as I have flagged on Hot Copper. Big Pharma is throwing ever larger amounts of money at cellular therapies, $23 billion in 2021:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/big-pharma-partnerships-record-investment-raise-profile-regenerative-medicine-2021

JNJ is putting ever more money into a recently FDA approved therapy that is ridiculously like the OrthoATI procedure (biopsy of autologous cells; cell cultivation; and reinjection/infusion):

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/legend-jj-double-down-car-t-manufacturing-500m-carvykti-eyes-wider-myeloma-use

It seems investors have not caught on. Its impossible to predict the future, and MSB's failures were a huge hit to the investment in Aussie stem cell stocks, but as well as individual business success in its CelGro technologies, OCC could so easily get caught up in a 2023 or 2024 investment trends and/or indeed some more surprise individual business successes like Bio Horizons.