During the last fortnight, the numbers of big movers in LSF's out-of-date portfolio were as follows:
5 occurrences of a stock with a single-day rise of more than 10%. 15 other occurrences of stocks with a single-day rise of 5-10%.
0 occurrences of a stock with a single-day fall of more than 10%. 6 occurrences of stocks with a single-day fall of 5-10%.
An apparent 40% outsize move in Link Administration Holdings (ASX: LNK) on 30th December has not been included in this set of statistics because the move was caused by an in-specie distribution of Link's substantial shareholding in PEXA (ASX: PXA). It is assumed that LSF will receive shares in PEXA equivalent in value to the fall in Link's SP.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MDGL) had a one-day rise of 268% on 19th December after announcing positive results from a phase 3 biopsy clinical trial of resmetirom, a liver-directed selective thyroid hormone receptor agonist. Since then, Madrigal has scored more outsize mover points and its SP is now 355% above what it was before the announcement.
The NTA rose substantially during this fortnight, a bigger rise than would have been caused by Madrigal alone. It could be just a coincidence but, believe it or not, there is a strong correlation between the NTA rise and this unusually positive set of outsize move statistics.
For the fortnight, the closing SP rose by 9 cents to $2.77.
The latest NTA reading is $2.9149, which is 7.16 cents higher than two weeks ago.
Over the fortnight, the NTA-SP discount decreased by 1.84 cents to 14.49 cents, which equates to 4.97% of NTA.
(LSF's NTA announcements lag the markets and the SP by three days. Figures shown here relate to post-tax NTA.)
For the last three months LSF's NTA has gradually been rising from a low of $2.5566 on 26th September, gaining on average about 12 cents per month. The NTA is well on its way back towards its alltime high of $3.1232.
------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis and Opinion
Looking back at how LSF's NTA has performed during the calendar year 2022, a picture emerges of upward trends for most of the time, interspersed with shorter steeper downward moves. The net result is that the NTA is now at a broadly similar level to where it was a year ago. The NTA is currently on an upwards trend that has been in progress for three months. During the year the NTA moved up and down within a range of 56 cents.
The NTA-SP discount was a few cents at the beginning of 2022, and mostly stayed below 10 cents until near the end of April. For the remainder of the year the discount was generally higher, on one occasion going over 30 cents but most of the time staying within a range of 10 to 25 cents.
Fluctuations in LSF's performance can be very profitable or very expensive. There are only a few methods available for monitoring LSF's performance. Investors who are interested in face value facts about LSF's performance can read LSF's regular reports and monitor LSF's NTA. Those who have plenty of time to waste can monitor LSF's out-of-date long portfolio. And of course, really serious investors can monitor the outsize move statistics.
The most up-to-date information about LSF's performance is provided by LSF's daily NTA announcements.
Some may think that LSF's monthly and quarterly reports provide a complete analysis of LSF's performance, but these reports tell only a fraction of the story. LSF's reports selectively describe only the fragments of info that LSF chooses to disclose. The fortunes of most of LSF's holdings remain shrouded in mystery because LSF's published long portfolio is permanently out-of-date and its short portfolio is never published.
Watchlist monitoring provides estimates of how LSF's out-of-date long portfolio is performing. There is little or no correlation between watchlist monitoring and LSF's NTA, partly due to LSF's long portfolio being out-of-date and partly due to the substantial influence on the NTA of LSF's large portfolio of invisible short positions.
New ideas for performance monitoring are always welcome.
LSF Price at posting:
$2.77 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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