SQ2

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$105.00 block inc.

Block Share Price at end of 2022, page-219

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PigsMightFly

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03/01/23

16:46

Post #: 65512905
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Originally posted by elks: ↑

Hi Hope you made some money in the stock market this year.
I re read your post and I thought I would ask your opinion on something I don't get in the hope of learning something.

1. Many Block Bears say Block is going to get hammered by higher borrowing costs.
What I don't understand is that if Afterpay loans out $100 and makes a 2% clip on each transaction and they turn over that $100 15 times a year they have a return on that capital of around 30%. If they have been borrowing that $100 at say 2% and interest rates go up to say 5%. Instead of making a return on capital of 28% it will go down to 25%. Still very healthy, Interest rates would need to up to extraordinary levels before they would be at risk. Am I wrong?

2. Many Block Bears say they are going to be hammered by increasing bad debts.
During the last major recession 2020 with the Covid pandemic many pundits said Afterpay was about to get wiped out. However as I understand it Afterpay did well. Their loans are for small amounts at a very short duration. As Nick Molnar say's the main reason people pay as back is that they want to keep using the service. Their customers value the service and want to keep using the service. They know if they miss a payment they will be shut off. I can't see why Afterpay customers with a good payment history would suddenly decide they are not going to pay Afterpay back. Afterpay has the luxury to only give loans to customers with a good payment history. Maybe if they lost their job but unemployment both here and in the US is so low. I cant get workers for my business. Would not people just stop using the service but pay back their loan if they lost their job,
Afterpay loans are of a short duration and they have various tools to make sure bad debts don't get out of control. I understand 3 quarters ago bad debts blew out a bit and Block tightened their lending and they for the last 2 quarters bad debts have been at historic levels of about 1%, I think bad debts are a risk but something Block/Afterpay has proven it can handle, Am I wrong. Interested in your thoughts.

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They aren't turning money over 15 times year because most customers are infrequent users. Many customers use a BNPL provider once. A huge amount of marketing expense is required to replace these inactive accounts. [CC charge an annual fees to get around inactive customers.]

The US is going into a major recession within three months. Personal debt is at an all time high. Discretionary spending will be the first thing to go.

SQ2 Price at posting: $92.40 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last $105.00		Change 3.470(3.42%)		Mkt cap ! $4.927B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$103.71	$105.39	$103.71	$23.42M	223.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	500	$104.97

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$105.13	600	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	500	104.970
1	250	104.900
1	75	104.250
1	100	103.750
2	12	103.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
105.150	5	1
105.200	19	1
105.250	765	3
105.350	286	1
105.520	20	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 11/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

SQ2 (ASX) Chart

Block Share Price at end of 2022, page-219

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