facts figures not just opinions , page-32

market cap of around $550 million and assuming a takeover premium of 20% brings that to $660 million. Plus you would need to take on $300 million in debt brings you a total investment of close to 1 billion.

Using current earnings, earnings will be around $150 million resulting in a yield of around 15%.

However, you need to remember that there is still the Allco payables facility and around $350 million in payables.

While a takeover does sound like it is possible, there are the following questions:

1. You need to believe current earnings will be achievable next year without all the forward selling and favourable trading terms being dished out to gain market share.
2. You need to understand and believe you can manage the business without the Allco payables facility.
3. Who would be the buyer? Would they have regulatory issues? Would they have confidence the Pharmacy agreement with government would not be further eroded?
4. What would the takeover costs be? especially if there are regulatory issues?

People more qualified than me may know better, but it does show you that a takeover at current prices is not a slam dunk nor does a 20% takeover premium easily paid.