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06/01/23
15:20
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Originally posted by moorookamick
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"The current war illustrates that their leadership have failed to understand this point .The war isn't being lost NOW in Ukraine but was lost in the previous two decades of corruption and stagnation ." (you say)
IMO that applies equally to the Ukraine(Europe's poorest country) as it does to Russia.
Up to the war, the Ukraine depended economically on its USSR era mineral mining, steel,
fertiliser & food exports and in fact the standard of living of the average Ukrainian fell below that
of their counterparts just across the border in Russia & Belarus.
IMO both the US and China (albeit in different ways) stand to gain from the Ukraine war:
-The US in arms sales and oil/gas exports while weakening the EU & the Euro
-And the Chinese by importing from Russia (& improved by the Western Cap on Russian Oil & Gas pricing)
at under global market pricing giving Chinese manufacturing yet another competitive advantage.
IMO, this economic debacle will see German, French & Italian manufacturers (like US manufacturers in the 80s & 90s)
migrate energy hungry manufacturing to China despite an temporary exodus of US businesses from China post the Trump
Tariffs. Rather than "Follow the Money" mantra, it will be "Follow the Cheap Energy" at least for the rest of the decade, IMO.
Meanwhile back in the trenches Chrom Valen and his propaganda sappers are sapping away.......pass the ammo and I'll
nail the bastards .....while Big Money is auditing the global impact of the war with an eye for opportunities eh?
I'm surprised that the Ukraine has not issued War Bonds, but then again, given how the country is wrecked it would have to be
a 100 year bond before there would be a reasonable shot at redemption...eh?
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Interesting summary. Not sure about European Ciro's replacing US Chinese exits though. The US are shipping out their trade tariff/sanction tool on tech companies, just ask the Dutch semi corp. These sanctions just quicken self reliance and now we see the Chinese catching up on these wafer thin semi's, not quite matching leader TSMC, just a matter of time.
China-Russia is establishing their own trade complimentary eco system. That may change in the next war with its largest trading partner. Just too many moving pieces to gauge the future in the middle of recession or stagflation conditions.