I finished my analysis and thanks for the feedback and education! I'm sharing my thoughts in the spirit of cooperation. (I concede I may be wrong but I've taken an approach that reflects the uncertainty around the major variables).
I think there is a 50% chance DRA is worth 12 or better (25% chance it's worth 14.5) given the 5 yr mine plan and no value to as yet unmade discoveries.
If this is to be valued as a producer then reasonably you're going to value against at least inferred resources though I mostly give them the benefit of the doubt for Svartliden.
I'm also 90%+ confident under the same conditions listed above that DRA is worth more than 9c. As pattyp said that really makes a price like 6c very interesting!
9c is less interesting.
JID is probably right that there is a lot of potential and you're definitely buying that potential for (less than) free. DRA also has a lot of upside (and downside) to gold movements.
I'm going to take a 1/4 size position as this meets the criteria for a value investment. Low downside and at least 1/3 upside with some good optionality. Dare I say though, that I think there are better opportunities.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 500 | $1.87 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1 | 9750 | 1.855 |
1 | 12000 | 1.850 |
1 | 277 | 1.800 |
2 | 945 | 1.600 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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2.200 | 16 | 1 |
0.000 | 0 | 0 |
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