I read this report on the weekend. I guess it basically tells us what most of us here already know. I have copied and pasted this for those who may not have already read this type of forecast for 2023.. For those who haven't it's worth a read.
What is the graphite supply and demand forecast for 2023?
As 2023 begins, graphite and other key battery metals are positioned to benefit
from the rise of the EV sector.
The EV industry has been growing over the past two years, with global sales
surpassing the 6 million mark in 2021. There is still major upside moving forward,
and many forecasts point to a strong market in the coming years as carmakers
continue to commit to the electrification of their fleets and governments push
towards a green energy transition.
When compared to lithium or nickel, graphite is been overlooked, in part because
its industrial uses have always been the main driver for demand — but that might
be about to change.
“We're now projecting that by the end of next year, batteries will be the number
one leading market for graphite,” Miller said during a keynote presentation at
Benchmark Week. “So this is a turning point for the industry.”
In order to meet this unprecedented demand, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
estimates that up to 150 new operations across natural and synthetic graphite are
needed by 2035.
“The volume, the rate at which the graphite market has been growing, has
particularly accelerated over the last couple of years,” Caspar Rawles, chief data
officer at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, told INN. “We've seen growth rates in
2021 and 2022 at around 40 percent year-over-year.”
“Graphite is the largest component by weight, compared to any other battery raw
material that goes in a battery ... so each gigawatt hour or megawatt hour of
capacity that's deployed has a big impact on graphite,” Rawles said. “And to some
extent, while we have seen some investment in new graphite production capacity, it
has not been adequate.”
Money needs to start coming urgently now to address the future issues that the
industry is facing, as bringing new mines online is not an easy task. “The issue in the
extraction is the timeframe to bring that new raw materials to market,” Miller said.
“So when we talk about getting fresh, new raw material out of the ground, the
industry needs to start developing those operations today to meet that potential
deficit of 2027, 2028," he added.
Despite talks about new technology breakthroughs, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
is forecasting that natural and synthetic graphite anodes will continue to capture
the majority of market share up until 2040.
“We really believe that graphite-dominant anodes will continue to capture the
majority of market share due to established processing and production
technologies at present, meaning automakers have qualified these chemistries into
their supply chains,” explained George Miller, senior analyst at Benchmark Mineral
Intelligence.
“And this is really combined with favorable cost stability and performance of
battery-based anodes.”
Within graphite-based anodes there will be room for both natural and synthetic
graphite, but experts agree that the tide will turn in favor of natural graphite.
“Although there is currently greater global demand for synthetic anodes, demand
for natural anodes is predicted to overtake synthetic this decade,” Miller said.
By 2030, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is forecasting that natural graphite anode
material supply will grow by 95 percent, with demand increasing by 450 percent in
the same time period.
Fastmarkets is also expecting both natural and synthetic graphite to be used widely
over time.
“However, we are expecting to see rising natural graphite consumption increase to
reflect the cost advantage of using natural graphite, as well as at the same time
overcoming some of the ESG considerations,” Bennett commented.
All in all, the firm is calling for the natural graphite market to remain largely in
deficit until 2025, with the outlook being dependent on increased graphite
production, primarily in China and Mozambique.
“The addition of new capacity has already faced significant delays, however, and we
expect continued struggles for many new entrants, with an appreciable influx of
new supply not expected to hit the market — and to remedy the growing
underlying supply/demand imbalance — before 2025,” Bennett said.
Fastmarkets expects to see an increasingly dynamic graphite market in 2023, with
notably higher prices next year. “This will reflect both incredible underlying market
demand and higher costs associated with graphite production,” she added.
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